Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Bill Cassidy vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadfd1382dade5ab44065520c657a24160a30cbcb32e5c02d1cb4d94447c985a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $167,051
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $168,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $167,051 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee15…b6dbbacked No | 1c | 61,207$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7efa…acbebacked No | 2c | 7,300$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 2c | 2,043$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 1c | 1,944$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 132 | 0.8%1 W · 131 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked No | 1c | 1,843$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +3,757.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed No | 4c | 1,589$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.36 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ac…5a76backed Yes | 72c | 1,150$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.3 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…6cadbacked Yes | 43c | 882.71$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.4 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5c…bf77backed No | 26c | 862$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.02 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 4c | 797.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes | 70c | 776$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.87 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a69…b592backed No | 62c | 738.24$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 20c | 668.54$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.52 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 30c | 600$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.66 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 25c | 558.04$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.6 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed No | 2c | 440.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…f8b4backed No | 44c | 402$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.8 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 40c | 375.68$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.69 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x469f…a7b8backed Yes | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed No | 29c | 287.79$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.63 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f1…05e2backed Yes | 69c | 218.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.14 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 31c | 213$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.73 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 7c | 203.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 64c | 185.12$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 69c | 177$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.87 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ab…5fb4backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Yes | 73c | 137$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +5.0wins | +0.29per pick | 47cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 31c | 106.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 33c | 100.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…da90backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes | 67c | 86.09$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed No | 35c | 83.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.7wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 71c | 78.59$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…6cdcbacked No | 29c | 75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 68c | 73.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…3133backed Yes | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad4f…12a3backed Yes | 64c | 62.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb1…b398backed Yes | 74c | 54.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…07aabacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked No | 31c | 46.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 63c | 39.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc16d…91a9backed Yes | 64c | 32.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4c…846cbacked Yes | 64c | 31.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80c…2e5dbacked No | 50c | 30.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.38per pick | 52cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…ca50backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc0…1780backed No | 57c | 26.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…1afcbacked Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 69c | 22.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4578…c54abacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…7ac8backed Yes | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bill Cassidy vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?this page
- Bernie Sanders votes to confirm Tulsi Gabbard?No won
- Will Cynthia Lummis vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?Yes won
- Will John Curtis vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?Yes won
- Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?No won
- Will Joni Ernst vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?Yes won
- Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?Yes won
- Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?No won
- Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.