TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Joni Ernst vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$192,029
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$141,573

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $192,029 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee15…b6dbbacked No1c18,900$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf78…c8c4backed No24c15,500$3,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,696.762944.8%13 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf5c…bf77backed No25c11,222$2,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,791.970%0 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked Yes79c8,894$7,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,875.652152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb78e…30e3backed Yes75c3,667$2,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.6825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-41.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No12c3,525$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.54139%16 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No25c2,841$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.06452.2%1 W · 44 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick9cpaid+90.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed No18c2,738$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.791936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+480.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb27…4db3backed No3c2,300$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7195.3%1 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-91.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd23…8e4fbacked No2c2,253$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick18cpaid-74%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x453c…37e4backed Yes71c2,233$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.47850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-22.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked No1c2,001$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.131320.8%1 W · 131 L+0.5wins0.00per pick0cpaid+60.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes71c1,887$1,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.341758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+24.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc4ac…5a76backed Yes75c1,761$1,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.637100%7 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked No1c1,589$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.75395.1%2 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick7cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes67c1,545$1,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.244037.5%15 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes52c1,254$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.641154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick37cpaid-7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed No7c1,164$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.131315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-76.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0aae…c6c4backed Yes67c1,057$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.92955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes74c1,057$783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.246431.3%20 W · 44 L-10.4wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-52%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x5ae5…68e1backed No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101225%3 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-62.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e2…e599backed Yes79c985.56$782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.061421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-49.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a69…b592backed No47c970.87$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.01633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-44.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4558…a2b3backed No26c966.94$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.162433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09e2…29debacked No23c877.92$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.622040%8 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+16.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed No23c800$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1841225%3 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid+27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91d7…2f8abacked Yes75c720$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3da3…a274backed Yes76c656.45$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.55450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57c5…07aabacked No30c625$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.384242.9%18 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No26c599.98$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.991414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.6wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-81.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes55c571$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.6424861.7%153 W · 95 L+24.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed No8c559.62$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.475510.9%6 W · 49 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick9cpaid+39.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed No28c525$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.864833.3%16 W · 32 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b73…4766backed No40c520$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.4714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-77.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1703941%16 W · 23 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid-0.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xad28…1601backed Yes77c444$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.123345.5%15 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e40…c89dbacked No29c440$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.6147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.19per pick27cpaid-86.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x498f…7b7fbacked Yes68c411.22$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.781050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+30.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No8c372.34$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4334129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1744…1d2abacked Yes72c350$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.211172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+21.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed Yes61c339.67$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.751741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No25c319.3$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.1544935.2%158 W · 291 L-37.6wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x034f…f8b4backed No23c315.67$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.152516%4 W · 21 L-5.4wins-0.21per pick37cpaid-73.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes72c280$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.581090%9 W · 1 L+3.8wins+0.38per pick52cpaid+71.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No37c275.12$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.964936.7%18 W · 31 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+33.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03f1…05e2backed Yes55c272.73$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.736100%6 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+64.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No30c257.33$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.065433.3%18 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86ab…5fb4backed Yes68c250.23$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.23862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x814a…25adbacked No31c250$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.5560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+41.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe81…5fe9backed No31c199.83$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.951241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No35c196$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.49296.9%2 W · 27 L-5.0wins-0.17per pick24cpaid-80.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x44e9…4c7fbacked Yes67c170.77$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43ec…4612backed Yes74c160$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.64022.5%9 W · 31 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-51.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed Yes75c150$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.51258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d9…245ebacked No36c146$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes76c140$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.634333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No16c138.06$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.383850%19 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb09…cfe0backed Yes71c137.99$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.02580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+36.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes58c135.27$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.1771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes79c130.69$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.445540%22 W · 33 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+92.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb35b…fc08backed Yes48c124.58$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.49825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-57.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No28c122.64$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.254214.3%6 W · 36 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-62.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No27c110$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1312440.3%50 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No27c107.78$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296235.5%22 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No25c106.41$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.523432.4%11 W · 23 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-22%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x92d6…e16abacked Yes73c104.07$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.13100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a05…e4b8backed Yes71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed No23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.31338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-45.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c92…1322backed No25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+101.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No28c90.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9833238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9187…cdb4backed Yes55c90$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed Yes75c86.62$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.622352.2%12 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a30…be4ebacked Yes73c81.36$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.977100%7 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x37a4…a487backed No31c76.65$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.761822.2%4 W · 14 L-4.7wins-0.26per pick48cpaid-63.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6238…57c8backed Yes69c72.35$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.353129%9 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-54.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Yes72c69.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.445139.2%20 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad4f…12a3backed Yes59c67.8$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.82548%12 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.13per pick35cpaid-0.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x380a…7505backed Yes79c65.79$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd2…e163backed Yes78c64.24$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.242100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcea7…8e04backed Yes79c62.9$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3459…2b8dbacked No22c62.86$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0728…0c70backed No22c62.05$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3fe…978fbacked No46c59$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.271963.2%12 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f4…869fbacked Yes79c58.1$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44f5…dad2backed No28c57.04$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2ae…2e71backed Yes74c56.26$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cc9…fc51backed No50c50.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.49785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick70cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0e9…eed2backed Yes67c50.88$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.882100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa52c…ee63backed No30c50.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed Yes78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112128.6%6 W · 15 L-4.9wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-59.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe886…87bfbacked Yes59c48.69$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.963100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+77.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f9a…ce50backed No41c46.68$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9127…6ff3backed Yes76c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+29%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed No31c37.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.632825%7 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-52%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc90…c30cbacked Yes58c36.43$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31a4…1ee7backed Yes69c36.23$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.233100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x132d…854fbacked No40c34.08$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.55326.4%14 W · 39 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a39…ca50backed Yes69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.992254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8bf…d806backed Yes56c27.78$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.111145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.