TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump end USAID in first 100 days?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$431,878
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$427,529

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $431,878 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 195 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x737a…1699backed Yes17c81,265$13,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,815.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x040f…807ebacked Yes18c52,588$9,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,465.8440%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6fd…658cbacked Yes27c7,977$2,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1304332.6%14 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes3c7,329$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.7641238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes10c6,610$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.2616854.8%92 W · 76 L+22.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes27c5,441$1,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,465.218231.7%26 W · 56 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No64c5,085$3,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,817.0815155%83 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes26c3,150$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.1319348.2%93 W · 100 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x449f…913bbacked No75c3,047$2,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.541546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-34.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes6c2,482$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.810630.2%32 W · 74 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+57.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x203b…acd1backed Yes10c2,137$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.331010%1 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-75.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8ca…7229backed No62c2,000$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7601560%9 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4447…a0e7backed Yes30c1,986$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.562317.4%4 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-63.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfb…86d5backed Yes52c1,910$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002119%4 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-38.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed Yes8c1,796$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.9411646.6%54 W · 62 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb2a2…6414backed Yes49c1,638$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.350%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed Yes32c1,608$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.076349.2%31 W · 32 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes10c1,546$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.9410749.5%53 W · 54 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+61.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No72c1,390$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.35451.9%28 W · 26 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked No69c1,390$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.325349.1%26 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf786…73ccbacked No77c1,330$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3101369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes3c1,300$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes4c1,293$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7319435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a3b…3035backed No68c1,285$877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.275135.3%18 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5861…66efbacked Yes35c1,234$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.34742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes10c1,192$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.494346.5%20 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked No60c1,164$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.4914742.9%63 W · 84 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+48.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed No53c1,146$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.396740.3%27 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes58c1,133$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.4616725.1%42 W · 125 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No70c1,119$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.623639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8659…9178backed Yes35c1,081$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.971136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes58c1,062$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.4417452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes9c1,049$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.956221%13 W · 49 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83d6…0489backed Yes41c1,020$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.522321.7%5 W · 18 L-4.8wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-57.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes36c1,005$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.576921.7%15 W · 54 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No65c1,000$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35015238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes11c983.05$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.48615.1%13 W · 73 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-39.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed No54c919.99$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.48843.2%38 W · 50 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x758a…4893backed No67c890.82$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.463050%15 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed Yes21c889$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.797428.4%21 W · 53 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes10c864.29$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.434818.8%9 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49d5…2e07backed No41c850.33$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.891353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No70c839.07$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.1699629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8258…f208backed No39c824.45$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.143268.8%22 W · 10 L+5.9wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+34.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2bae…2e92backed Yes27c823.5$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.199846.9%46 W · 52 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+32.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes11c789.3$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.0828320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Yes13c736.14$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.83231.3%10 W · 22 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-26.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes14c700$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10119328.5%55 W · 138 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cd7…0643backed Yes29c690$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.22544%11 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c13…2096backed No62c631.62$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x92c4…8767backed Yes7c616.67$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8866…dd1ebacked Yes56c590$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.042343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf555…b2d5backed Yes24c548.02$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.523511.4%4 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed No74c510.77$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.7511940.3%48 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf0b…f3e3backed No60c502.83$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc1…d7acbacked Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003240.6%13 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-15.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No46c499.99$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27014940.9%61 W · 88 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d11…3ff2backed Yes2c496.88$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes6c487.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.092154.2%9 W · 206 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x344f…bd80backed Yes8c473$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick23cpaid-81.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb12…afb2backed No73c449.99$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.5366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No11c396.36$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.7611120.7%23 W · 88 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+212.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3bb0…8b63backed Yes3c391.58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Yes29c388.6$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.594434.1%15 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed Yes40c385.24$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.2515924.5%39 W · 120 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ace…e38bbacked Yes31c384.16$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe111…0473backed Yes11c375.14$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick20cpaid+110.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed No32c360.21$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.067051.4%36 W · 34 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed Yes16c350$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572650%13 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2365…855ebacked Yes59c338.98$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-56.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6090…19cabacked Yes9c323.3$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-69.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ed0…5eddbacked Yes8c319.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes35c304.85$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.411,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd29…a638backed Yes7c301.2$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.21323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-64.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes56c300$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1681020%2 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-68%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60eb…a6d8backed Yes13c300$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382119%4 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No64c300$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10811950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa810…fd25backed Yes8c299.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x23cf…3349backed No43c299.99$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.994065%26 W · 14 L+5.2wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+37.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9241…f41cbacked No67c298.51$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.512944.8%13 W · 16 L-3.8wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-36.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked No64c294.47$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.159557.9%55 W · 40 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6073…2387backed Yes11c290.91$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3240%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb11…0d5ebacked No70c286$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.82755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+34.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ef8…1d13backed No36c277.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.781442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dd0…bc3dbacked No76c274.04$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.955437%20 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5da6…388fbacked Yes53c266.94$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.21130%0 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x92a7…85c0backed No56c266.93$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.931546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5c5…2336backed Yes31c266.09$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.11728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e65…7bc1backed No64c262$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.323935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No40c259.44$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.888127.2%22 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e13…a7a6backed Yes39c257.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked No16c253.98$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.975234.6%18 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b3c…3e51backed Yes42c238.1$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.970%0 W · 7 L-3.2wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c234.44$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.091,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21b2…d733backed Yes36c232$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.52520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-68.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No72c218.11$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.0637533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdde8…cb2bbacked Yes37c208.03$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.17250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e50…86b5backed No45c207.99$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.42751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No65c205.98$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4256733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes6c202.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2496319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.