Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump end USAID in first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f15d76e1a5674a35433f2842ea5d37ab5527412e857b83fc2361fdf7e774806
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $431,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $427,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $431,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 195 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x737a…1699backed Yes | 17c | 81,265$13,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,815.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x040f…807ebacked Yes | 18c | 52,588$9,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,465.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…658cbacked Yes | 27c | 7,977$2,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,130 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 3c | 7,329$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.76 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 10c | 6,610$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.26 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 27c | 5,441$1,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,465.21 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 64c | 5,085$3,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,817.08 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 26c | 3,150$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.13 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x449f…913bbacked No | 75c | 3,047$2,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.54 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 6c | 2,482$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.8 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 10c | 2,137$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.33 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ca…7229backed No | 62c | 2,000$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4447…a0e7backed Yes | 30c | 1,986$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.56 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfb…86d5backed Yes | 52c | 1,910$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 8c | 1,796$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.94 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a2…6414backed Yes | 49c | 1,638$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 32c | 1,608$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.07 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 10c | 1,546$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.94 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 72c | 1,390$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.3 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 69c | 1,390$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.32 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf786…73ccbacked No | 77c | 1,330$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 3c | 1,300$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,293$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.73 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3035backed No | 68c | 1,285$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.27 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5861…66efbacked Yes | 35c | 1,234$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 10c | 1,192$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.49 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 60c | 1,164$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.49 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 53c | 1,146$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.39 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 58c | 1,133$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.46 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 70c | 1,119$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.6 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8659…9178backed Yes | 35c | 1,081$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.97 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 58c | 1,062$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.44 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 9c | 1,049$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.95 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d6…0489backed Yes | 41c | 1,020$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.52 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 36c | 1,005$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.57 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 11c | 983.05$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed No | 54c | 919.99$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.4 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758a…4893backed No | 67c | 890.82$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.46 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 21c | 889$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.79 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 10c | 864.29$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.43 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…2e07backed No | 41c | 850.33$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.89 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 70c | 839.07$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.16 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f208backed No | 39c | 824.45$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.14 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.9wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 27c | 823.5$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.19 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 11c | 789.3$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.08 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 13c | 736.14$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 14c | 700$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd7…0643backed Yes | 29c | 690$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.2 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c13…2096backed No | 62c | 631.62$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c4…8767backed Yes | 7c | 616.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8866…dd1ebacked Yes | 56c | 590$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.04 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 24c | 548.02$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.52 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed No | 74c | 510.77$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.75 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0b…f3e3backed No | 60c | 502.83$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc1…d7acbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 46c | 499.99$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d11…3ff2backed Yes | 2c | 496.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 487.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x344f…bd80backed Yes | 8c | 473$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb12…afb2backed No | 73c | 449.99$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 11c | 396.36$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.76 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb0…8b63backed Yes | 3c | 391.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 29c | 388.6$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.59 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 40c | 385.24$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.25 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ace…e38bbacked Yes | 31c | 384.16$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe111…0473backed Yes | 11c | 375.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +110.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed No | 32c | 360.21$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.06 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 16c | 350$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…855ebacked Yes | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6090…19cabacked Yes | 9c | 323.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed0…5eddbacked Yes | 8c | 319.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 304.85$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.41 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd29…a638backed Yes | 7c | 301.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…a6d8backed Yes | 13c | 300$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa810…fd25backed Yes | 8c | 299.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed No | 43c | 299.99$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.99 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked No | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked No | 64c | 294.47$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.15 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6073…2387backed Yes | 11c | 290.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked No | 70c | 286$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef8…1d13backed No | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked No | 76c | 274.04$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.95 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5da6…388fbacked Yes | 53c | 266.94$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.21 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92a7…85c0backed No | 56c | 266.93$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.93 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c5…2336backed Yes | 31c | 266.09$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed No | 64c | 262$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.32 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 40c | 259.44$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.88 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e13…a7a6backed Yes | 39c | 257.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked No | 16c | 253.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.97 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3c…3e51backed Yes | 42c | 238.1$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 234.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b2…d733backed Yes | 36c | 232$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 72c | 218.11$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.06 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdde8…cb2bbacked Yes | 37c | 208.03$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…86b5backed No | 45c | 207.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 205.98$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.42 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 202.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.