TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Trump announces cutting all military aid to Ukraine aid before April?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$968,147
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$990,022

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $968,147 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 182 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf485…53ccbacked No0c126,533$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.591323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5e8…45c9backed No0c84,185$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid-12.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdde8…bcc4backed No0c41,980$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ee4…17e1backed No0c29,850$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f08…e130backed No1c28,658$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4256…b85ebacked No3c22,997$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.3730%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf311…fe1bbacked No0c22,238$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5940%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6477…707dbacked No0c20,143$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.951030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203417.6%6 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No4c19,999$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.71729.7%7 W · 65 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-71.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8ba8…61b7backed No1c18,359$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.13520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-69.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87a9…2362backed No0c18,254$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.76520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-53.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed No1c17,945$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.344818.8%9 W · 39 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c35…f4a1backed No1c13,352$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5fa…c131backed No1c12,565$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfca8…8179backed No1c12,284$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed No0c12,000$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34180%0 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No3c10,000$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.561921.1%4 W · 15 L-3.3wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-59.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20651.5%1 W · 64 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3dcf…0ebebacked No1c9,429$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9c…4815backed No1c8,999$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40b9…d521backed No0c8,702$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+114.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x460b…aeddbacked No19c8,392$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,600333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-56.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x879b…2f18backed No2c7,807$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.64139%16 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe64d…4cd6backed No0c7,787$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x144f…12c3backed No2c5,356$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x712c…de39backed No0c5,100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d85…c1b8backed No0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152142.9%9 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+42.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc82e…9460backed No0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x198b…a1dcbacked No0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9569…e859backed No1c4,630$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47a2…2634backed No0c4,342$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90eb…f9dbbacked No2c4,201$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-58.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x54ae…66c4backed No1c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6abf…c6cebacked No0c3,996$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ba…5933backed Yes46c3,934$1,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,112.211136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b72…7dbbbacked No1c3,777$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.22933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-41.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked No0c3,595$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.14230%0 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf989…47ccbacked No65c3,509$2,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,281.93284.4%27 W · 5 L+9.1wins+0.29per pick56cpaid+63.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed No0c3,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick4cpaid-64.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f50…4db9backed No3c3,500$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912050%10 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-24.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a07…2de1backed No0c3,299$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.191435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No5c3,157$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.9112937.2%48 W · 81 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ca5…78dfbacked No0c3,049$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf9d…7213backed No1c3,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4830%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb44…8452backed No1c3,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes36c2,839$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,804.013537.1%13 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x605c…2fe0backed No0c2,800$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3706…6baebacked No1c2,456$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ce9…b9cdbacked No1c2,396$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46f4…5352backed No0c2,350$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-36.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1802…7512backed No1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb11…e93fbacked No36c2,000$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.99837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No58c2,000$1,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,165.3310137.6%38 W · 63 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed No46c1,968$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.992759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No4c1,740$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8223435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fbe…d6d5backed No1c1,732$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51cc…c6c9backed No23c1,686$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.51450%7 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked No54c1,598$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.841758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed Yes32c1,530$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,047.725127.5%14 W · 37 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37ad…c4d5backed No8c1,322$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+72.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcba6…6435backed No3c1,200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303622.2%8 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No60c1,100$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.993847.4%18 W · 20 L+4.7wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+81.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe006…7ee1backed No17c1,064$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1ae…61edbacked Yes29c1,038$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.772948.3%14 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x81a1…8483backed Yes55c910.82$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.82250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa075…7d2bbacked Yes33c899.93$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.931030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-33.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03e0…1f91backed Yes32c861.38$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.384100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+105%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No33c757$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.88355.4%46 W · 37 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5308…3221backed No4c755.26$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.26366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6442…ccbabacked No79c754.86$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes34c600$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3961723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda47…f40abacked No73c587.49$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5688…f2f1backed Yes72c569.55$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d91…a32abacked No68c501.37$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.6120%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa822…64e6backed Yes27c500$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+93.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8f0…0446backed No75c494.61$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.061546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xef19…91e7backed Yes41c484.6$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.61225%3 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-54.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes19c446.99$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.0612830.5%39 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes54c436$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.593953.8%21 W · 18 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick43cpaid-11.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed Yes66c427$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.841758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1ab…d109backed No6c419.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.15633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb555…e61bbacked No46c415$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.754953.1%26 W · 23 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8178…32d8backed No32c403.36$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.373342.4%14 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-25.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x207a…6fecbacked No74c371.47$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.93862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+17.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x107f…fe60backed Yes35c359.99$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.6933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-37.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3762…7ff4backed No5c350.73$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175464.8%35 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked No68c344$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.77425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+62.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea03…0aa1backed Yes29c342.36$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+71.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04e3…69d1backed No69c334.7$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.292055%11 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+23%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5b0…5f19backed No56c330$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e56…1825backed Yes34c317.65$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.65450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+21.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd572…7bdabacked No3c311.15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+16.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34a…250ebacked Yes24c302.58$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.06250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+111.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes39c300$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.932832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0b9…6048backed No17c295$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1514150.4%71 W · 70 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked No72c259.99$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.894850%24 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes27c259.21$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.016336.5%23 W · 40 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28d8…18d9backed No8c250$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes34c238.71$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.55425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid-26.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.