TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Trump cuts Ukraine aid before April?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$60,068
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$57,819

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,068 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x42a6…1b64backed No0c5,477$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.673119.4%6 W · 25 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-63.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4cfe…5e2fbacked No32c5,200$1,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,673.021442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b43…aef6backed No1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe645…2ed2backed No6c3,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes76c2,778$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.243164.5%20 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No14c2,760$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388729.7%7 W · 65 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-71.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes62c2,100$1,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.254459.1%26 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No34c1,832$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.53847.4%18 W · 20 L+4.7wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+81.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa0b9…6048backed No5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014150.4%71 W · 70 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes70c998.01$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.41625%4 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-66.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6718…80d1backed Yes65c811.31$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.15825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad7f…8024backed Yes59c677.58$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.58425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-57.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x64e0…8d71backed No63c666.74$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.37366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+71.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed No41c653.28$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.95127.5%14 W · 37 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No25c608.36$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.323132.3%10 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc3e…e98fbacked Yes55c602.82$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.821136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0049…6034backed No30c600$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes72c600$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16926835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes74c599.99$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1561942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-37.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No13c569.7$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.5612927.9%36 W · 93 L-0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No39c515.75$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.624258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed No10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502450%12 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52e9…67c3backed Yes58c500$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.351040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bae…5d34backed Yes70c427.47$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1271450%7 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked No14c400$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564425%11 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40b9…d521backed No3c366.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.75425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+114.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbbd…eec1backed Yes57c364.06$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5c2…4c90backed Yes65c342.06$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.063100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+58.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed Yes51c336.17$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.172157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No42c300$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1267241.7%30 W · 42 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd89b…7945backed Yes58c300$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.12650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+32.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08c8…1da2backed No61c270.51$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.012857.1%16 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea15…c292backed Yes74c270.27$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.27520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-73%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No37c267.88$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4730837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a7d…e3e1backed No38c250$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb27…4db3backed Yes66c249.99$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-22.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No30c241.77$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.363630.6%11 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf9e…518ebacked No42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009962.6%62 W · 37 L+12.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x4acf…eaf1backed No14c237.92$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.031553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5903…23ffbacked Yes53c227.09$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.09520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-62.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d0a…f6abbacked Yes54c222.08$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f5…fe12backed Yes62c210$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.8560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+28.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No15c206$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.035327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607851.3%40 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes68c200$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6411040%44 W · 66 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0004…ef4cbacked Yes69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+49.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No16c200$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.53119.4%6 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c47…9b02backed No47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941553.3%8 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37ad…c4d5backed No22c181.74$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+72.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3d2…42d6backed No28c181.61$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3397…fe08backed No30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes62c158.59$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.341736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa075…7d2bbacked Yes64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.251030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-33.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes72c150$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.29955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes72c146.57$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.55550.9%28 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f0…3213backed No42c142.86$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-61.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e25…0667backed Yes71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.85633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-45.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c23…b248backed No42c138.37$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.124141.5%17 W · 24 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-31.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No42c130$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557250%36 W · 36 L+10.0wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+25.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x74b5…e2ffbacked Yes73c125$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe248…8621backed No60c124.51$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7520%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No32c124.35$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.799037.8%34 W · 56 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36d0…8dcebacked Yes61c122.66$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.36922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-47.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6906…9995backed No42c119.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes48c114.49$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6012937.2%48 W · 81 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc212…a125backed Yes72c108$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.24728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-58.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe0ad…b056backed No49c102.68$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.4wins-0.38per pick49cpaid-72.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes42c101.27$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.513250%16 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8eac…3600backed No40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403933.3%13 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-44.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9118…e9dabacked No42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422931%9 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc203…ffb8backed No41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x126f…7137backed No29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x092f…18acbacked Yes52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.61931.6%6 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes50c90$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9513…a6a2backed Yes54c90$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-53.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed Yes54c82.5$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.951241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe157…4bebbacked Yes50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.5wins+0.39per pick50cpaid+103.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked No50c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4035341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc550…272dbacked Yes48c78$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.91250%6 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf91f…6ca2backed Yes42c77.4$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.91040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes72c76.61$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.452532%8 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-43%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2d9…5653backed No25c75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.751926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick32cpaid+80%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8e9…40dabacked No29c73.76$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.391040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebda…294ebacked Yes50c73.69$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.85520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-60%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc130…73d1backed No28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26df…f747backed Yes62c71.32$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.32742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-31.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2dd1…0310backed Yes77c70$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+39.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86f2…8f62backed Yes59c67.8$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb250…078cbacked Yes54c58.63$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.02633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed Yes73c55$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.851758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes55c55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.754358.1%25 W · 18 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x76ca…3a5dbacked Yes51c53.2$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.071520%3 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-56.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67a9…c417backed Yes55c50.43$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.692722.2%6 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-32.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked No45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.51833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08eb…ee62backed Yes45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b60…4007backed Yes34c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.36per pick31cpaid+98.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x19dc…ec03backed Yes51c49.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.022100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+69.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ace…ed20backed No54c48.77$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.23366.7%22 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c40…09a6backed Yes62c48.39$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.391650%8 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.