China Taiwan · resolved market
DeepSeek confirmed to have used banned Nvidia chips?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a6af08eaf6bb3a943c249c7bb7a46bed1fac74a15e07eacf818f18752825aed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $271,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $270,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $271,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1990…e954backed Yes | 2c | 11,606$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d6…0489backed Yes | 7c | 10,844$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 0c | 10,434$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2e…bd74backed Yes | 13c | 7,404$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x632d…1db7backed Yes | 14c | 6,561$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d8…9a77backed Yes | 8c | 6,399$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8357…2946backed Yes | 8c | 6,369$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…4e58backed Yes | 12c | 5,824$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 3c | 4,100$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.5 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 16c | 3,005$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7feb…6612backed Yes | 3c | 2,916$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed Yes | 13c | 2,743$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba01…1ebabacked Yes | 13c | 2,656$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 12c | 2,275$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a1…5f52backed Yes | 9c | 2,272$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdf…085ebacked Yes | 13c | 2,205$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 9c | 2,191$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.04 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,126$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe588…7397backed Yes | 8c | 2,108$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…2e19backed Yes | 19c | 2,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1836…db98backed Yes | 14c | 1,945$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d15…c1c2backed Yes | 3c | 1,909$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8866…dd1ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,863$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 9c | 1,850$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.5 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f4…5fd8backed Yes | 19c | 1,762$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c6…e7cabacked Yes | 3c | 1,722$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 16c | 1,599$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceaa…bb9abacked Yes | 7c | 1,500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 12c | 1,472$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.12 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74a1…2542backed Yes | 17c | 1,407$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1156…0febbacked Yes | 16c | 1,267$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 9c | 1,252$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes | 12c | 1,220$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb44…4fd5backed Yes | 17c | 1,200$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fac…574ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…28c0backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,111$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.88 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbabf…4eafbacked Yes | 5c | 1,075$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 18c | 1,035$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91b2…fcc2backed Yes | 1c | 1,020$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49bf…db20backed Yes | 2c | 1,007$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 26cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4257…7af7backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7012…4035backed Yes | 18c | 999.43$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22d…ea45backed Yes | 17c | 900$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ac…6e16backed Yes | 17c | 893.67$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd844…fdfebacked Yes | 10c | 830$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd5…d2a2backed Yes | 8c | 812.5$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Yes | 14c | 760$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d9ebbacked Yes | 4c | 756.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…bf78backed Yes | 8c | 637.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2984…b133backed Yes | 8c | 635.73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Yes | 4c | 633.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes | 8c | 610$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…23dabacked Yes | 9c | 600$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…6cadbacked Yes | 12c | 599.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35db…5394backed Yes | 9c | 580.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6821…f021backed Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c23…b6a1backed Yes | 8c | 553$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7621…10a1backed Yes | 11c | 547.62$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc575…5da6backed Yes | 4c | 490.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb438…c462backed Yes | 12c | 488.38$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e38…2f28backed Yes | 9c | 480.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 16c | 469.02$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed Yes | 10c | 426.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc6…0c70backed Yes | 14c | 420.7$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc0…016cbacked Yes | 3c | 409.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…adf4backed Yes | 15c | 403.33$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c2…362dbacked Yes | 2c | 402.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 5c | 400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d67…4e16backed Yes | 6c | 399.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe072…6e0cbacked Yes | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb4…7e8dbacked Yes | 7c | 374.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…a190backed Yes | 9c | 372.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…adbebacked Yes | 15c | 335$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e9…9fb1backed Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a90…ab9dbacked Yes | 13c | 323.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c9…21abbacked Yes | 9c | 321.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…d142backed Yes | 16c | 318.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…3ff1backed Yes | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ee…f1f1backed Yes | 18c | 309.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 11c | 290$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed Yes | 18c | 260$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b4…edc0backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55b…7853backed Yes | 8c | 241.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…0e52backed Yes | 15c | 232.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 11c | 230$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x701a…3fc2backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…51b7backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d1…1e37backed Yes | 8c | 189.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…8496backed Yes | 8c | 180$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea3…52a1backed Yes | 19c | 175$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbf…12aabacked Yes | 9c | 173.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf599…2cbabacked Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…e597backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 9c | 162.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.