TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$676,950
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$478,617

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $676,950 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 367 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes5c52,592$2,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,727.856011.7%7 W · 53 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-37.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89d7…f94dbacked Yes14c50,251$7,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,257.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e55…e3b9backed Yes8c30,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes10c15,568$1,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,510.816716.4%11 W · 56 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-51.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd249…6310backed Yes58c12,105$7,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,008.69250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c11,962$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.226291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3017…8d41backed Yes3c11,472$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.9280%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes13c10,082$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,354.5824315.2%37 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ee6…b5bcbacked Yes4c8,461$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.551717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+261.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36fd…c834backed Yes8c7,375$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5852326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-51%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes0c6,043$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.22166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-91.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x371e…c419backed Yes12c5,707$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x408f…f530backed Yes8c5,287$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89f1…89f3backed Yes4c5,034$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002420.8%5 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x259b…dafcbacked Yes4c4,500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.131428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf8e…97adbacked Yes17c3,853$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.76540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-45.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9105…4c47backed Yes3c3,809$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ff1…4d1fbacked Yes5c3,727$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick34cpaid+141.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c93…32c3backed Yes6c3,661$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+47.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes3c3,563$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9250%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9908…0dbcbacked Yes8c3,534$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6045…65f1backed Yes4c3,456$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed Yes10c3,394$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.4728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick34cpaid+91.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec40…fce5backed Yes14c3,360$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.584231%13 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-0.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes35c3,275$1,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,130.972934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-48.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0292…b2e5backed Yes5c3,260$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe408…232bbacked Yes7c3,247$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.071414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc288…edb1backed Yes7c3,240$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.771323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa810…fd25backed Yes4c3,122$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.92333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-43.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc252…5de0backed Yes17c2,938$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Yes7c2,821$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x412f…a840backed Yes6c2,812$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.9250%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf8db…91dcbacked Yes5c2,796$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5d…bafabacked Yes13c2,774$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.59366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.55per pick12cpaid+497.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a4c…532bbacked No30c2,767$830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,936.62343.5%10 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-0.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3e8…e81fbacked Yes6c2,762$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.12175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick20cpaid-74.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfeee…8aeebacked Yes2c2,746$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2140%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c48…6da6backed Yes4c2,646$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.45425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-56.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x468f…c2a7backed Yes4c2,609$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004228.6%12 W · 30 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-55.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ee4…17e1backed Yes8c2,594$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdeb8…9b21backed Yes3c2,545$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc922…bf70backed Yes5c2,489$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9137…fbd3backed Yes4c2,277$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81e6…beb9backed Yes18c2,259$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf25…be9ebacked Yes6c2,206$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.822218.2%4 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+64.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe05a…5fddbacked Yes4c2,151$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-73.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2688…cb00backed Yes4c2,121$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.337536%27 W · 48 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes68c2,089$1,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,411.951675%12 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ba3…3adfbacked Yes12c2,047$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-25.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc0a…e101backed Yes5c2,000$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+1,011.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bf1…3018backed Yes5c1,901$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked Yes2c1,900$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.34037.5%15 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8b5…b789backed Yes4c1,900$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.45817.2%10 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+77%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes9c1,896$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.56829.4%20 W · 48 L+6.0wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe3a4…543fbacked Yes10c1,889$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.271118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick26cpaid+4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06de…2bb6backed Yes11c1,872$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefbb…65e8backed Yes13c1,818$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.78520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes12c1,806$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.783920.5%8 W · 31 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-48.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes5c1,791$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.03616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-70.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes7c1,734$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.0757426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…94bcbacked Yes4c1,687$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8340%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes5c1,653$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.455735.1%20 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd39b…9343backed Yes5c1,603$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.11825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-59.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe821…248fbacked Yes7c1,591$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+26.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x393b…91f8backed Yes10c1,555$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.06333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick6cpaid+1,494.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0753…25b2backed Yes9c1,536$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.171926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+24.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes12c1,514$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.513145.2%14 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+105.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf01d…e7eebacked Yes5c1,500$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.22333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick18cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb20b…ddf2backed Yes7c1,500$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x967c…a16dbacked Yes5c1,500$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3240%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd07b…1898backed Yes8c1,481$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.4330%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b1d…d7d0backed Yes8c1,463$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3166…a9febacked Yes7c1,441$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.531421.4%3 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid+42.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5587…5200backed Yes4c1,409$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.671040%4 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+18.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa32c…d1bdbacked Yes7c1,372$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.66425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-31%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x979b…7da0backed Yes4c1,357$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x031f…14bcbacked Yes9c1,342$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f68…62abbacked Yes9c1,300$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.3425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-66.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc343…7863backed Yes4c1,289$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8608…7b5cbacked Yes6c1,273$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7760%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes9c1,256$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.63911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-51.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fdf…3b40backed Yes26c1,208$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.022718.5%5 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick24cpaid+8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x106f…83d5backed Yes5c1,199$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.392142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+17.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc38…520abacked Yes5c1,175$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7150%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc16a…5579backed Yes11c1,172$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x744f…fd6cbacked Yes8c1,171$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fea…c013backed Yes6c1,149$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32c1…e575backed Yes11c1,129$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Yes12c1,122$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.132740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-27.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0933…6515backed Yes6c1,120$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46d2…145dbacked Yes4c1,118$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-70.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3f2…c208backed Yes2c1,112$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.481323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0522backed Yes14c1,109$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes4c1,095$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.822512%3 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-76.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x83e0…c74cbacked Yes5c1,085$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26d1…13a4backed Yes16c1,068$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d5…5684backed Yes4c1,040$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.34771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick48cpaid+23.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x09e6…24a1backed Yes9c1,029$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.3510933.9%37 W · 72 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0551…ba4dbacked Yes4c1,007$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d0f…50c7backed Yes31c1,000$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.