Us Politics · resolved market
Will Tim Walz announce Senate run before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00636c4e4250c2863d3ee9c3545cb13ebe98d035b3ca49e19a6bfab09fa1d4c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $256,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $256,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $256,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa068…6b89backed No | 51c | 100,000$51,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,000 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac3…f3b0backed Yes | 49c | 100,000$49,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,000 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce86…c0cebacked Yes | 2c | 50,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 68c | 577.18$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.19 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 2c | 554.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 66c | 504.29$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.9 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 34c | 400$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed Yes | 33c | 400$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2617…099bbacked Yes | 63c | 283.3$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 14c | 220.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked No | 65c | 200$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 72c | 138.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90e1…7de7backed No | 56c | 84.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 56c | 37.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 71c | 28.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd737…71bbbacked Yes | 55c | 20.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.