Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Trump try and fire Powell before June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa03d31fdfff32bdd06515319e930952d055a80563832ff2e6a12a603c85a29f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $618,442
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $705,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $618,442 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 4c | 105,855$3,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,837.11 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…614dbacked Yes | 6c | 33,330$1,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,913.42 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f77…9d8ebacked Yes | 11c | 29,830$3,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,422.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 3c | 19,695$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.11 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c48…3299backed Yes | 6c | 14,000$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 9c | 11,861$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.6 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 6,698$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.57 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…3307backed Yes | 2c | 6,147$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.47 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 5,965$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.67 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…a004backed Yes | 17c | 5,849$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 10c | 5,514$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.41 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +276.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb4…ae30backed Yes | 15c | 5,370$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.13 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 4c | 5,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 3c | 4,487$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.31 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +214.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 1c | 4,474$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 3,524$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.52 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 12c | 3,403$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.45 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 15c | 3,114$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 3c | 3,000$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x083a…c64dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,815$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Yes | 14c | 2,560$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes | 16c | 2,525$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 3c | 2,165$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.52 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 15c | 2,116$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.44 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 16c | 2,037$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea3…52a1backed Yes | 13c | 1,872$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdec…cf08backed Yes | 16c | 1,800$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aad…4e00backed Yes | 14c | 1,598$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 5c | 1,552$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.94 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…ced9backed Yes | 15c | 1,541$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdefd…3f9dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e8…d208backed Yes | 16c | 1,500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7fe…a013backed Yes | 1c | 1,466$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 15c | 1,360$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.62 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 4c | 1,033$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 38cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed Yes | 16c | 937.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…16f8backed Yes | 2c | 933.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4974…ea15backed Yes | 4c | 920.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 903.21$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ac…3e1ebacked Yes | 9c | 900$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c80…a608backed Yes | 16c | 880$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c614backed Yes | 15c | 849.97$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e2…5532backed Yes | 4c | 832$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…512abacked Yes | 9c | 817$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed Yes | 2c | 815.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 765.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed Yes | 10c | 750$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6374…ca3abacked Yes | 7c | 642.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 5c | 618.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked Yes | 17c | 600$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -80%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa416…025ebacked Yes | 18c | 593.65$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 13c | 575.54$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 464.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaf…5d2bbacked Yes | 4c | 444.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 5c | 420.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e8…9c65backed Yes | 19c | 415$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x377d…0331backed Yes | 16c | 400.63$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a2…033fbacked Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51a4…0e62backed Yes | 7c | 371.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62ad…9bbbbacked Yes | 15c | 363.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec8…877cbacked Yes | 16c | 359$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae1…35dbbacked Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0752…e48ebacked Yes | 3c | 308.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed Yes | 17c | 300$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8c…028abacked Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…da90backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes | 12c | 254.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a5…c139backed Yes | 5c | 253.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +56%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0c…4934backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7763…faa3backed Yes | 13c | 228.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41cf…a01dbacked Yes | 18c | 200.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d67…4e16backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8911…8a41backed Yes | 14c | 169.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 14c | 154.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…8444backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23be…da4fbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…8846backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked Yes | 10c | 110.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +57%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 12c | 101$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe523…09ddbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01fb…36c8backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe340…5666backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5177…93c9backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…54a5backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 11c | 96.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…8d6ebacked Yes | 16c | 78.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d13…caa5backed Yes | 16c | 71.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…af86backed Yes | 16c | 64.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd35…2bb6backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed Yes | 18c | 57.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.