Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester City vs. Aston Villa end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c4473df79641d4ee8e9a27ce68a2bf25ef84ead70611f8cae2ec1c7b4d51e34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8377…4198backed Yes | 59c | 11,290$6,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,714 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…c077backed No | 77c | 9,995$7,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,298.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…d28cbacked Yes | 23c | 9,993$2,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,298.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 20c | 6,466$1,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,203.74 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Yes | 51c | 4,418$2,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,258.79 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 39c | 4,297$1,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,608.23 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed No | 40c | 2,580$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,556.02 | 207 | 44%91 W · 116 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb78a…6291backed Yes | 36c | 1,773$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 59c | 1,688$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.19 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked No | 47c | 1,248$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.44 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d67…1fa5backed Yes | 26c | 1,108$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 64c | 1,071$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.38 | 697 | 72.6%506 W · 191 L | +83.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 24c | 1,042$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 270 | 24.8%67 W · 203 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…a31dbacked Yes | 25c | 958.88$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked No | 76c | 915.42$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.7 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked No | 75c | 666.66$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.66 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7b…52a8backed Yes | 24c | 568.26$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 76c | 548.83$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.72 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed No | 76c | 535.93$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.62 | 564 | 53.9%304 W · 260 L | +27.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed No | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 213 | 53.1%113 W · 100 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed No | 75c | 472$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.03 | 214 | 45.8%98 W · 116 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25eb…8ce7backed No | 75c | 471$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.18 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…810ebacked Yes | 20c | 463.4$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 76c | 400.4$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.92 | 147 | 54.4%80 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 76c | 398.32$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.58 | 280 | 70%196 W · 84 L | +49.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…b289backed Yes | 11c | 384.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…930bbacked Yes | 79c | 377.89$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 21c | 377.89$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.53 | 197 | 43.7%86 W · 111 L | +32.4wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked No | 73c | 361.85$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.36 | 138 | 57.2%79 W · 59 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked No | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 23c | 300$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed No | 48c | 281.86$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.8 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1e…49d9backed Yes | 32c | 250$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1218…366bbacked No | 46c | 250$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…24c2backed Yes | 24c | 209.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | -9.7wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9b…0f44backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…eb07backed No | 23c | 189.55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.55 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…1dd2backed Yes | 23c | 153.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +7.7wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x265d…5329backed Yes | 66c | 151.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ab…a5dabacked No | 77c | 147.23$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7592…b5cbbacked No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8764…069dbacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed No | 10c | 112$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 30c | 107.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa93b…7888backed Yes | 66c | 106.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x082b…5e67backed No | 75c | 87.97$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…fa0dbacked No | 29c | 68.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…2b2dbacked No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 72cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3831…a86abacked Yes | 63c | 59.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b8…0646backed Yes | 35c | 56.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0609…da97backed Yes | 67c | 54.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 22c | 47.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 157 | 26.8%42 W · 115 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056a…611fbacked Yes | 23c | 43.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a57…88acbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…ecc4backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 599 | 58.9%353 W · 246 L | +26.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2b…f9fcbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 154 | 61%94 W · 60 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 93 | 57%53 W · 40 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6705…8184backed No | 64c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdddb…48d8backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc52…a021backed Yes | 65c | 22.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec89…3286backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd0…5fa2backed No | 77c | 13.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester City vs. Aston Villa end in a draw?this page
- Will Aston Villa win on 2025-04-22?No won
- Will Manchester City win on 2025-04-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.