Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 43.0% on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcee52c1dc6554437ba3df84a03fcbc763a04780f0333353defdf8487d1d44947
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 4c | 5,844$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.72 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…e254backed Yes | 17c | 5,430$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…5017backed Yes | 1c | 3,172$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,797$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,059$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.56 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…bf39backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7295…e951backed Yes | 2c | 920.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9741…4573backed Yes | 10c | 837.72$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.84 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef7a…f2bcbacked Yes | 18c | 646.61$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.35 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…09f2backed Yes | 6c | 587.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 10c | 538.39$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b95…5beebacked Yes | 7c | 523.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba90…99b9backed Yes | 7c | 472.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 470.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 469.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 5c | 439.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…80d1backed Yes | 6c | 431$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada8…8650backed Yes | 7c | 403.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…6110backed Yes | 6c | 312.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 5c | 282.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd784…8f5bbacked Yes | 6c | 258.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…5f71backed Yes | 5c | 233.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…de19backed Yes | 9c | 230.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f9…0932backed Yes | 6c | 213.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 6c | 193.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5417…0204backed Yes | 6c | 166.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b2…26abbacked Yes | 14c | 144.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9712…b813backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 114.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b6…4725backed Yes | 27c | 102.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a24…def7backed Yes | 12c | 92.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump's approval rating be less than 43.0% on May 2?this page
- Will Trump's approval rating be 46.0% or higher on May 2?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 43.0% and 43.9% on May 2?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.0% and 44.9% on May 2?Yes won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.9% on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.