Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.0% and 44.9% on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa778b19a9cf053b7e6da11b9ac84b91dda7dbf08973a49af138b1523c805e43f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 23c | 5,019$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,842.65 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 38c | 1,529$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.05 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 7c | 910.26$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.89 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 11c | 910$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.21 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 11c | 764.69$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.26 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 30c | 699.78$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.83 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed Yes | 19c | 400$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.06 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9741…4573backed Yes | 35c | 398.25$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…5017backed Yes | 9c | 354.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.66 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.2 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b94…473ebacked Yes | 9c | 281.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.62 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…de19backed Yes | 23c | 266.39$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.05 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed Yes | 14c | 262.28$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.47 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed Yes | 51c | 200$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb1…0ffdbacked Yes | 8c | 183.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.44 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…2ae8backed No | 68c | 135$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec28…10ebbacked Yes | 22c | 133.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.77 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a3…e236backed Yes | 11c | 129.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 15c | 115$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.95 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81b…38d8backed Yes | 54c | 91.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb2…8e12backed No | 49c | 82.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9500…85eabacked Yes | 52c | 82.12$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09bf…9918backed Yes | 50c | 79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ef…899abacked Yes | 25c | 60.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7538…b1fdbacked Yes | 53c | 56.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed No | 53c | 37.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 72c | 31.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d27…6d33backed Yes | 46c | 28.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.0% and 44.9% on May 2?this page
- Will Trump's approval rating be 46.0% or higher on May 2?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 43.0% and 43.9% on May 2?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.9% on May 2?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be less than 43.0% on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.