Premier League · resolved market
Will Aston Villa vs. Newcastle end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81abe621793f1fbb39ea0f0bfa9caeecd907cc36bb7289a430b2eb14465cb906
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ebe…5e03backed No | 73c | 10,000$7,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe319…8f82backed Yes | 27c | 9,993$2,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,698.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Yes | 28c | 2,865$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 126 | 42.9%54 W · 72 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0b…eb6dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,150$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 71c | 1,716$1,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.26 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed No | 71c | 912.92$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.81 | 207 | 44%91 W · 116 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 72c | 902.5$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.7 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cd…9973backed Yes | 33c | 758.77$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -9.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xefaf…26a1backed Yes | 28c | 714.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 68c | 539.79$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.99 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 23c | 500$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25eb…8ce7backed No | 72c | 456$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.68 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…612abacked Yes | 27c | 413.37$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.61 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…0e52backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 72c | 388$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.64 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -11.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 193 | 36.8%71 W · 122 L | -14.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 71c | 319.77$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Yes | 26c | 319.18$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.77 | 214 | 45.8%98 W · 116 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…4dc6backed No | 75c | 277$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d22…ec35backed Yes | 31c | 249.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.49 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d9…ed60backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked No | 68c | 175.86$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +8.0wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 32c | 173.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed No | 65c | 172.08$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.23 | 213 | 53.1%113 W · 100 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…021fbacked No | 74c | 157.69$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba8…f9f7backed Yes | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b3…6ed8backed No | 73c | 143.51$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 61 | 77%47 W · 14 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Yes | 27c | 134.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…7d99backed Yes | 27c | 108.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Yes | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked No | 73c | 99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 61 | 77%47 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed No | 74c | 70.24$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…b8f5backed No | 74c | 63.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x594c…4fd5backed Yes | 27c | 62.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…696bbacked Yes | 27c | 56.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056a…611fbacked Yes | 27c | 56.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…fec8backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc52…a021backed Yes | 30c | 51.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 157 | 26.8%42 W · 115 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 72c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 599 | 58.9%353 W · 246 L | +26.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…3918backed Yes | 27c | 40.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9448…be98backed No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 154 | 61%94 W · 60 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3775…b928backed No | 74c | 16.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aston Villa vs. Newcastle end in a draw?this page
- Will Aston Villa win on 2025-04-19?Yes won
- Will Newcastle win on 2025-04-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.