Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.0% and 44.4% on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde62d4df95d7ce1ba3267ae8595afb8738f9d64219ba28f43ac6603b2f163448
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x49c3…fb55backed No | 62c | 32,814$20,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,469.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e81…9f59backed Yes | 38c | 32,814$12,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,469.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ae…53c0backed Yes | 0c | 3,484$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 21c | 2,831$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.63 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,500$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.57 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 14c | 1,200$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab8c…bfefbacked Yes | 23c | 922.32$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.27 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 33cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…2916backed Yes | 4c | 641.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed Yes | 6c | 598.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 73c | 580$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.15 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb1…0ffdbacked Yes | 36c | 515.81$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.89 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 7c | 513.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 503.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 32c | 450.98$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.97 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x753b…ebcfbacked Yes | 2c | 437.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 38c | 385.99$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.18 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe93a…bee8backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe5…72dabacked Yes | 35c | 215.84$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…80d1backed Yes | 33c | 208$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.01 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 206.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 38c | 169.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.2 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 68c | 141.97$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 52cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes | 38c | 140$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 71c | 137.16$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 120.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 114.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 64c | 96.26$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f03…216ebacked Yes | 39c | 89.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…6bcdbacked Yes | 41c | 88.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1944…5404backed Yes | 26c | 80.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 77c | 76.07$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7d…8a55backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 37c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 75c | 51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec28…10ebbacked Yes | 41c | 48.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed No | 61c | 35.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…0000backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17b2…fe16backed Yes | 39c | 27.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5be…a8edbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b36…85bbbacked No | 65c | 16.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…5690backed No | 63c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.0% and 44.4% on May 16?this page
- Will Trump's approval rating be 45.0% or higher on May 16?Yes won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 43.0% and 43.4% on May 16?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 43.5% and 43.9% on May 16?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.5% and 44.9% on May 16?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be less than 43.0% on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.