Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.5% and 44.9% on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbafe9652e2a601483617d45a093325f66b3b574bd710392f352bde60bb0c30d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 31c | 1,214$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.29 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 30c | 1,130$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.15 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 45c | 1,057$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.44 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 36c | 1,033$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.92 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8017…d7debacked Yes | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22ae…53c0backed Yes | 2c | 818.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 33c | 699$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.16 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 22c | 654.57$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.62 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…527ebacked No | 35c | 580$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 48c | 567.07$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.62 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 64c | 459.39$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.94 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…d8dbbacked No | 35c | 415$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 327.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 66c | 271.52$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.45 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 62c | 254.97$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.08 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe93a…bee8backed Yes | 40c | 235.6$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 225.59$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.39 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…80d1backed Yes | 44c | 219.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.59 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8c…bfefbacked No | 45c | 190$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 33cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 25c | 187.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb1…0ffdbacked Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40bb…72bebacked Yes | 67c | 179.22$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 36c | 174.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed Yes | 30c | 171.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 55c | 163.06$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.68 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b4…638fbacked Yes | 26c | 160$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 30c | 153.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 36c | 143.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 49c | 141.97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.22 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 52cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 141$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…6110backed Yes | 32c | 139.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 45c | 137$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ef…899abacked Yes | 31c | 111.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…6bcdbacked Yes | 27c | 107.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9741…4573backed Yes | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 22c | 85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec28…10ebbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 81.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1944…5404backed Yes | 48c | 81.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…94aabacked No | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a46…5b84backed Yes | 59c | 69.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 58c | 53.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 76c | 51.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 76c | 51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 31c | 46.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f03…216ebacked Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28b4…8d97backed Yes | 33c | 41.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…f0c4backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 57c | 38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7605…852abacked Yes | 58c | 31.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 62c | 29.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…ffc0backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 65c | 23.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.5% and 44.9% on May 16?this page
- Will Trump's approval rating be 45.0% or higher on May 16?Yes won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 43.0% and 43.4% on May 16?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 43.5% and 43.9% on May 16?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.0% and 44.4% on May 16?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be less than 43.0% on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.