Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump's approval rating be 45.0% or higher on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8bca73047f215280f0f188d57dd644f322753ae25788f3c43954adbb0c8e7e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 25c | 3,642$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,748.35 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 48c | 1,133$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.9 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 40c | 986.4$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.46 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 39c | 628.98$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.1 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 53c | 467.52$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.2 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…2916backed Yes | 7c | 399.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked No | 44c | 349$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.62 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a5…c139backed Yes | 10c | 285.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.84 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 8c | 277.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.03 | 98 | 10.2%10 W · 88 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed Yes | 51c | 270$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.4 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9741…4573backed Yes | 26c | 268.38$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…0000backed Yes | 11c | 251$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…35fbbacked Yes | 10c | 240.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +140.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe93a…bee8backed Yes | 64c | 239.21$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c4…7234backed Yes | 8c | 236.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,168.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a46…5b84backed Yes | 72c | 218.37$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.77 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec28…10ebbacked Yes | 71c | 180.89$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…80d1backed Yes | 15c | 170$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.6 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x423b…cb44backed Yes | 11c | 138.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.28 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6494…2123backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +809.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d8…9c51backed Yes | 12c | 130$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…f0c4backed Yes | 19c | 105.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.42 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b4…638fbacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea61…8f05backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…26b1backed Yes | 69c | 94$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…7222backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 58c | 82.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f9…2924backed Yes | 31c | 79.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +61%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 79.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb1…0ffdbacked Yes | 64c | 77.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe180…889bbacked Yes | 61c | 65.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Yes | 68c | 65.41$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe5…b266backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +184.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 35c | 50.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 79c | 13.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump's approval rating be 45.0% or higher on May 16?this page
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 43.0% and 43.4% on May 16?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 43.5% and 43.9% on May 16?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.0% and 44.4% on May 16?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.5% and 44.9% on May 16?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be less than 43.0% on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.