Fed Rates · resolved market
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x134bc0bb11dd106662b5d8412bbc404548891e34b6b019a1da19c26b23dda475
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,477,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,733,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,477,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 352 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f1d…63d9backed Yes | 18c | 231,841$40,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,724.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 15c | 63,698$9,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,299.11 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 78c | 58,453$45,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,011.72 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0412…3734backed Yes | 41c | 29,277$12,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,003.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a31…f46cbacked No | 59c | 29,277$17,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,003.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadae…a7a2backed Yes | 36c | 28,621$10,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,303.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7d…111cbacked No | 64c | 28,621$18,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,303.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed No | 60c | 23,153$13,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,289.73 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…e9a6backed No | 75c | 23,000$17,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,680.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 4c | 17,811$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.52 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 74c | 15,448$11,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,022.97 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 11c | 11,900$1,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,253.37 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 11,820$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.73 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3e…3d75backed No | 69c | 11,651$8,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,635.54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 29c | 11,224$3,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,260.34 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ae…9b16backed Yes | 23c | 10,818$2,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,530.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 12c | 10,204$1,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,232.04 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 26c | 10,143$2,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,668.47 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4583…bfebbacked Yes | 24c | 10,020$2,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,405.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked No | 78c | 8,947$6,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,987.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…17ddbacked Yes | 47c | 8,584$4,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,028.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…e4bdbacked Yes | 5c | 8,142$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.72 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 80c | 7,204$5,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440.76 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 9c | 7,119$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.84 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 51c | 7,028$3,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,472.28 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 34c | 6,749$2,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,274.31 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 19c | 6,650$1,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,258.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed No | 74c | 6,172$4,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,627.61 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…8afebacked No | 70c | 5,500$3,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,661.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 16c | 5,439$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.44 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked No | 74c | 5,260$3,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,370.2 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1958…310bbacked Yes | 30c | 5,200$1,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,584.41 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6090…39b4backed No | 70c | 5,090$3,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,545.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9429…1f8dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,069$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 64c | 5,068$3,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,809.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6a74backed Yes | 35c | 5,060$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 75c | 5,000$3,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,265 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.23per pick | 45cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,868$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73bb…9473backed Yes | 23c | 4,351$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.08 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed No | 69c | 4,150$2,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,306.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked No | 67c | 4,100$2,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,361.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed No | 77c | 4,100$3,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…50c7backed Yes | 2c | 4,011$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce2…d58bbacked No | 68c | 4,000$2,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 18c | 4,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x383d…a9f2backed Yes | 15c | 3,755$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 74c | 3,721$2,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.94 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 22c | 3,715$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0681…f713backed Yes | 17c | 3,517$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 15c | 3,341$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.47 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x275e…a8ffbacked Yes | 13c | 3,068$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…f8b4backed Yes | 11c | 2,975$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.71 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…e696backed Yes | 8c | 2,906$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed No | 74c | 2,525$1,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ce…ee0bbacked Yes | 7c | 2,312$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.78 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b3…57adbacked Yes | 13c | 2,174$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed No | 67c | 2,174$1,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.26 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b1…76d9backed Yes | 17c | 2,159$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.94 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 23c | 2,144$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.16 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +211.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb0…eb5bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,092$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68da…ee52backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 1,994$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.73 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2237…97b0backed Yes | 15c | 1,980$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 1,822$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa822…64e6backed Yes | 28c | 1,799$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf86…f3e9backed Yes | 27c | 1,790$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…ec66backed No | 71c | 1,761$1,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -72%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 11c | 1,742$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.8 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdefd…3f9dbacked Yes | 28c | 1,706$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 80c | 1,662$1,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.76 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbacc…e985backed Yes | 30c | 1,600$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed Yes | 24c | 1,550$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe578…34cbbacked Yes | 30c | 1,513$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,500$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.1 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 77c | 1,472$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee69…05d0backed Yes | 11c | 1,464$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,459$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 29c | 1,450$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.27 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…aa35backed Yes | 25c | 1,431$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes | 34c | 1,426$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515a…de7fbacked Yes | 31c | 1,367$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Yes | 38c | 1,350$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…a861backed Yes | 56c | 1,344$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3338…7624backed Yes | 16c | 1,342$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb976…93e6backed No | 59c | 1,325$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00dc…6ab8backed No | 78c | 1,284$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…6387backed Yes | 28c | 1,211$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 78c | 1,196$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.66 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7e…d8afbacked Yes | 22c | 1,163$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed Yes | 32c | 1,161$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 78c | 1,100$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26c1…1098backed Yes | 2c | 1,087$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…89b1backed Yes | 23c | 1,087$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4e…022cbacked Yes | 19c | 1,053$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 2c | 1,005$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5d…aefabacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…ce0abacked Yes | 29c | 1,000$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc445…d6aebacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfc…288cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.