Us Politics · resolved market
U.S. citizens transferred to El Salvador before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9f974fc4a4b8d63ff4f3f5d9b1d26b8a7736345cd85134b7c20cee58df5c828
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 9c | 7,859$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.47 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 5,115$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.4 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 5c | 4,661$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.85 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 9c | 4,485$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.13 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 9c | 3,947$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.13 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 7c | 3,377$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.64 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdefd…3f9dbacked Yes | 7c | 3,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 7c | 2,720$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.43 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89f4…9fd5backed Yes | 8c | 2,527$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed Yes | 8c | 1,981$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.61 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0da2…59e7backed Yes | 8c | 1,914$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,900$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc5…0c52backed Yes | 12c | 1,613$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa95f…2bdbbacked Yes | 5c | 1,597$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.59 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,447$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 8c | 1,392$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.14 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…eb3cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…8921backed Yes | 5c | 1,024$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…edb1backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 3c | 996.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 7c | 900$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23b9…53d0backed Yes | 9c | 729.17$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 9c | 700$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…bbf8backed Yes | 8c | 677.94$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d8…9c51backed Yes | 7c | 598.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 5c | 541.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…0213backed Yes | 7c | 510.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…638dbacked Yes | 8c | 429.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 11c | 327.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9d…446dbacked Yes | 7c | 310.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64a2…93f0backed Yes | 13c | 307.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8429…e8c7backed Yes | 13c | 307.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 13c | 288$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x239c…ba96backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca7…81ddbacked Yes | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0e…5aacbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3db2…ec33backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 8c | 245$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83ac…9b3bbacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa076…c6eabacked Yes | 8c | 216$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2a…fc3abacked Yes | 10c | 206.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…183cbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 6c | 189.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b46…52a3backed Yes | 9c | 180.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe461…9a34backed Yes | 8c | 155.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef4a…021fbacked Yes | 12c | 126.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…6110backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd36e…f9adbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab09…a67abacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 9c | 115$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…3fa4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.