TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump approval >40% on July 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$800,454
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$618,399

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $800,454 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d37…f4a4backed No6c80,495$4,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,470.57828.5%7 W · 75 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc605…b8f8backed No1c30,455$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e7f…b1d4backed No3c24,875$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5dbe…c8a3backed No0c24,125$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.8550%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No1c20,185$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.693989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcc0…4353backed No2c18,378$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.941040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+104.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed No1c17,973$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.5318322.4%41 W · 142 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf39…42a5backed No2c15,415$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cb3…9902backed No2c13,981$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.9430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8653…c109backed No0c10,639$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.740%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea10…d4b6backed No2c10,298$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-73.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x22bf…0df3backed No1c9,419$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb535…1b48backed No1c9,348$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a4d…5f9fbacked No0c8,015$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.052619.2%5 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-44.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8583…4b92backed No3c7,237$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked No1c7,138$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.381216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-76.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xccdc…567bbacked No3c6,641$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.85329.4%3 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-79.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked No1c6,588$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.69490%0 W · 49 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63a6…f308backed No2c6,377$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.361040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-37.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1944…5404backed No2c6,260$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.4890%0 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc962…5502backed No0c6,239$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd823…1df1backed No0c6,224$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d8c…1eb7backed No1c6,007$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec3…f757backed No3c6,000$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80b7…4697backed No2c5,274$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebda…75a9backed No2c5,263$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-70.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b12…0b94backed No2c5,263$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f0f…3561backed No3c4,926$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3117…0f8fbacked No3c4,561$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1301030%3 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34e8…6ea3backed No3c4,360$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.57520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-63%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99b0…24c0backed No2c4,297$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.880%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f40…df19backed No0c4,261$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7feb…533abacked No1c4,134$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1c3…d278backed No3c4,103$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc979…4a98backed No3c4,019$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.442927.6%8 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaef1…0c55backed No1c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No2c3,956$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.0232029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe299…761bbacked No2c3,889$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61100%0 W · 10 L-4.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x2dd7…cddabacked No2c3,523$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid+11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c3,399$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.861,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc315…90b0backed No6c3,369$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45e0…f68abacked No3c3,328$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.3850%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1876…2d3abacked No3c3,322$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.3440%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf14d…85ccbacked No3c3,163$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5df…391fbacked No2c3,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked No3c3,000$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1023727%10 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe760…9c66backed No3c2,940$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc864…0a81backed No1c2,727$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb4c…6cb0backed No1c2,526$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.21333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xace8…ca04backed No3c2,521$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d8…7b80backed No3c2,500$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed No3c2,393$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618111.1%9 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a39…0a98backed No3c2,093$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x384f…0874backed No1c2,053$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-68.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58ab…a338backed No0c2,005$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc023…ccf8backed No2c2,000$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492520%5 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick24cpaid+10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked No14c1,958$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.2319436.1%70 W · 124 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcabc…11d3backed No2c1,921$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.65520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-53.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf289…2415backed No3c1,873$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.82714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-53.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f56…ccdebacked No3c1,717$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34a8…83e7backed No2c1,709$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ca…7168backed No3c1,705$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-66.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9992…c1d2backed No1c1,631$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…66d7backed No3c1,585$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8674…3219backed No3c1,534$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c26…cf53backed No2c1,496$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.43812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-77.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x96ff…f74cbacked No3c1,483$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.21020%2 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+115.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde9e…7df8backed No2c1,481$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked No8c1,458$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.8614742.9%63 W · 84 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+48.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf623…d538backed No3c1,429$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3197…9c4ebacked No2c1,419$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.01616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-63.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc610…9cc3backed No4c1,394$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b0d…089abacked No3c1,390$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c76…ee70backed No1c1,275$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10d6…a48cbacked No4c1,165$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-43.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca2e…4723backed No2c1,161$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd95…6d8ebacked No3c1,160$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68ca…6d8cbacked No9c1,151$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7456…5148backed No3c1,141$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0140%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53c4…6582backed No3c1,131$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+138.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb4…0188backed No1c1,104$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc54a…3034backed No3c1,100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1bd…23fabacked No1c1,072$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3650%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2d5…312abacked No1c1,071$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15540%2 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick15cpaid+278.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8fd…6b3abacked No3c1,068$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.431030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-34.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7592…27b3backed No1c1,056$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78c1…7e21backed No2c1,053$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa206…80acbacked No2c1,024$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2550%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8383…d0dcbacked No2c1,019$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-81.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa665…2c25backed No1c1,016$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.64616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick9cpaid-38.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb11f…de8fbacked No1c1,007$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e8b…1ea1backed No6c1,000$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.653354.5%18 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…a23ebacked No2c1,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211540%6 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdccb…3932backed No2c1,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2130%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2e5…14b2backed No5c999.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x227c…ee3fbacked No2c909.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid+34.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x761d…0687backed No2c907.17$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.51616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-68.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf61b…ade8backed No3c900.27$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97d4…c412backed No2c860.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cbf…2bdebacked No3c822.39$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254055%22 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.