Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed rate cut by June meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20d409df16760edeafc0f28dba351678cd84733bc8b217cd5556c25a48b11b64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $344,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $350,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $344,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf96…d7a5backed Yes | 34c | 33,679$11,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,450.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…5251backed No | 66c | 33,679$22,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,450.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 59c | 15,195$8,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,965.63 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes | 4c | 11,460$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.85 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e2…3a76backed Yes | 4c | 10,918$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c70…ad5abacked Yes | 3c | 10,619$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes | 65c | 9,755$6,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,293.58 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 42c | 8,609$3,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,974.16 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…caefbacked Yes | 62c | 8,136$5,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,022.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed No | 49c | 7,188$3,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,667.98 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 34c | 7,181$2,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,420.07 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d1…3a84backed Yes | 3c | 6,859$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…79a7backed Yes | 3c | 6,672$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…5f25backed Yes | 3c | 6,331$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x552d…d0d8backed Yes | 3c | 5,470$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4771…1c20backed Yes | 3c | 5,235$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ee…5a28backed No | 28c | 4,033$1,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,894.13 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3c…8727backed Yes | 3c | 3,245$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0682…4250backed Yes | 3c | 3,232$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 42c | 3,061$1,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,297.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…d560backed No | 25c | 3,060$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,308.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b5…aa49backed Yes | 3c | 2,922$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,917$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73bb…9473backed No | 32c | 2,586$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,759.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…d128backed Yes | 4c | 2,573$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 72c | 2,400$1,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,720 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 74c | 2,357$1,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,740.78 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…a2a7backed Yes | 3c | 2,355$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…72f8backed Yes | 4c | 2,349$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 74c | 1,610$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5001…49c3backed Yes | 2c | 1,420$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 2c | 1,358$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x320b…b765backed Yes | 4c | 1,351$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 62c | 1,323$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.92 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 2c | 1,317$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…fee4backed Yes | 2c | 1,304$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 45c | 1,299$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.71 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 54c | 1,291$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…0d5ebacked No | 30c | 1,202$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.42 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7662…7930backed No | 65c | 1,165$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.88 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e1…3d78backed Yes | 4c | 1,126$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda95…0f22backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 2c | 1,100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed No | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked No | 29c | 1,000$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.42 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf584…e58fbacked Yes | 5c | 980.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 55c | 912$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.32 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f5…f23abacked Yes | 3c | 910.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4e…022cbacked Yes | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 895.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 96 | 0%0 W · 96 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6447…69b7backed Yes | 74c | 850$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7768…161fbacked No | 67c | 811.21$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…7234backed Yes | 2c | 800.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781f…6763backed Yes | 29c | 750.64$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fd…c837backed Yes | 8c | 737.86$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…ce36backed Yes | 35c | 714.29$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90bc…2cc7backed Yes | 28c | 709.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78cf…77e6backed No | 75c | 703.57$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9d…dd7cbacked Yes | 3c | 694.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Yes | 11c | 680$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 56c | 675$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.15 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 45c | 644.54$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.21 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 44c | 637.57$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.78 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x855d…5342backed Yes | 3c | 618$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3035…5b2fbacked Yes | 3c | 553.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…6c83backed No | 27c | 505$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a6…58ebbacked Yes | 3c | 501.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe19f…854abacked Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 73c | 492.63$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.65 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -6.7wins | -0.19per pick | 22cpaid | -96.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb19e…8219backed Yes | 3c | 490.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0107…7ec3backed Yes | 51c | 395.15$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x978b…7e07backed No | 75c | 386.67$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed No | 32c | 377.8$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.9 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 377.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 25c | 360$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed Yes | 16c | 325$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57bd…cf55backed Yes | 5c | 309.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -31%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 71c | 300$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d15…c1c2backed Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…8ccebacked No | 47c | 276.6$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…7420backed Yes | 5c | 259.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d22…b357backed No | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64cd…7a07backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked No | 49c | 242.34$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.59 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 73c | 222$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.06 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6363…4cf1backed No | 53c | 211.72$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6d…3fd7backed Yes | 9c | 210$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked No | 26c | 200$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x979d…31fbbacked Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd7…b90fbacked Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 29c | 195$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +211.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 33c | 191.34$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.91 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e9…6094backed No | 52c | 191.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a6…efddbacked Yes | 62c | 183.53$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 74c | 166.03$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.37 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b5…138fbacked Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e08…2ce9backed Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2763…7776backed Yes | 15c | 147.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c4…2c5bbacked No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 67c | 132.5$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.21 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.