TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Fed rate cut by June meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$344,406
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$350,444

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $344,406 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaf96…d7a5backed Yes34c33,679$11,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,450.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98ec…5251backed No66c33,679$22,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,450.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes59c15,195$8,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,965.632516%4 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-70.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes4c11,460$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.854820.8%10 W · 38 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6e2…3a76backed Yes4c10,918$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c70…ad5abacked Yes3c10,619$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes65c9,755$6,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,293.581833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked No42c8,609$3,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,974.164151.2%21 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4344…caefbacked Yes62c8,136$5,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,022.0440%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe893…f215backed No49c7,188$3,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,667.982429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-33.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes34c7,181$2,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,420.074721.3%10 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21d1…3a84backed Yes3c6,859$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0298…79a7backed Yes3c6,672$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbe4…5f25backed Yes3c6,331$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x552d…d0d8backed Yes3c5,470$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4771…1c20backed Yes3c5,235$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa9ee…5a28backed No28c4,033$1,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,894.131735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b3c…8727backed Yes3c3,245$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0682…4250backed Yes3c3,232$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccdc…567bbacked Yes42c3,061$1,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,297.4450%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d86…d560backed No25c3,060$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,308.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-41.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8b5…aa49backed Yes3c2,922$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c2,917$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.013187.2%23 W · 295 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-75%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x73bb…9473backed No32c2,586$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,759.51233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-38.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x440d…d128backed Yes4c2,573$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes72c2,400$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,720523.8%2 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes74c2,357$1,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,740.785131.4%16 W · 35 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-39.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa64f…a2a7backed Yes3c2,355$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad90…72f8backed Yes4c2,349$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed Yes74c1,610$1,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,191.4714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick37cpaid-72.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5001…49c3backed Yes2c1,420$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-54.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes2c1,358$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.081030%3 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick23cpaid-34.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x320b…b765backed Yes4c1,351$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No62c1,323$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.928132.1%26 W · 55 L-0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-38%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes2c1,317$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.142128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-36.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca0c…fee4backed Yes2c1,304$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes45c1,299$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.7118135.4%64 W · 117 L-16.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-36.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes54c1,291$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick23cpaid-83.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb11…0d5ebacked No30c1,202$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842.421040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7662…7930backed No65c1,165$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.884100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+63.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf6e1…3d78backed Yes4c1,126$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4280%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda95…0f22backed Yes9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed Yes2c1,100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.582931%9 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid-23.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed No43c1,000$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5705431.5%17 W · 37 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68d9…00edbacked No29c1,000$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.423630.6%11 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf584…e58fbacked Yes5c980.58$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes55c912$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.321637.5%6 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6f5…f23abacked Yes3c910.61$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e4e…022cbacked Yes55c909.09$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c895.37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.53960%0 W · 96 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6447…69b7backed Yes74c850$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick37cpaid-42.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7768…161fbacked No67c811.21$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.353100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb39b…7234backed Yes2c800.66$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781f…6763backed Yes29c750.64$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.61837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-40.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0fd…c837backed Yes8c737.86$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2ba…ce36backed Yes35c714.29$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x90bc…2cc7backed Yes28c709.24$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78cf…77e6backed No75c703.57$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.31650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f9d…dd7cbacked Yes3c694.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc17…289abacked Yes11c680$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.81020%2 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked No56c675$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.158953.9%48 W · 41 L+8.9wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes45c644.54$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.215131.4%16 W · 35 L-5.4wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-39.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes44c637.57$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.7811646.6%54 W · 62 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x855d…5342backed Yes3c618$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3035…5b2fbacked Yes3c553.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcef4…6c83backed No27c505$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.65540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+22.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6a6…58ebbacked Yes3c501.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1560%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe19f…854abacked Yes2c500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed Yes73c492.63$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.65352.9%1 W · 34 L-6.7wins-0.19per pick22cpaid-96.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb19e…8219backed Yes3c490.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0107…7ec3backed Yes51c395.15$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-56.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x978b…7e07backed No75c386.67$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed No32c377.8$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.91540%6 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes3c377.54$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3611.6%1 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-96.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes25c360$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0dc…3944backed Yes16c325$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57bd…cf55backed Yes5c309.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-31%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed Yes71c300$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d15…c1c2backed Yes8c300$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2390%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb891…8ccebacked No47c276.6$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.6475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+34.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x760b…7420backed Yes5c259.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1250%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d22…b357backed No39c256.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.413100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+72.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64cd…7a07backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44bc…c53ebacked No49c242.34$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.59837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked Yes73c222$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.061163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick58cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6363…4cf1backed No53c211.72$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb6d…3fd7backed Yes9c210$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-26.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked No26c200$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1485438.9%21 W · 33 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x979d…31fbbacked Yes11c200$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdd7…b90fbacked Yes53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10680%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes29c195$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.554037.5%15 W · 25 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick23cpaid+211.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No33c191.34$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.919414.9%14 W · 80 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-56.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e9…6094backed No52c191.07$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.072100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+63.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7a6…efddbacked Yes62c183.53$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+86.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Yes74c166.03$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.375446.3%25 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b5…138fbacked Yes65c153.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e08…2ce9backed Yes66c151.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-64.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2763…7776backed Yes15c147.22$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid+25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07c4…2c5bbacked No69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.93333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-51.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes67c132.5$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.214320.9%9 W · 34 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.