Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 45.0% on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0776bdace4ef8eb1acf346129d84d2ecddffc0e9d71a4df0542abad8ba28e727
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $138,999
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,999 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x010f…5380backed No | 69c | 60,621$41,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,792.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb953…0ce9backed Yes | 31c | 60,621$18,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,792.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1d…63d9backed Yes | 27c | 2,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.32per pick | 22cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 74c | 1,816$1,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.84 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,656$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.65 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…80d1backed Yes | 4c | 1,600$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e2…7709backed Yes | 21c | 1,000$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ad…7a9bbacked No | 79c | 1,000$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9308…e2f5backed Yes | 17c | 639.17$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.61 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked Yes | 8c | 572.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 17c | 548.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.78 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 4c | 405$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 395.01$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f77…9d8ebacked Yes | 20c | 386.26$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.11 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13c2…0403backed Yes | 19c | 367.78$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…ce0abacked Yes | 14c | 355.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb04…6deabacked Yes | 8c | 346.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f3…06c3backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed Yes | 11c | 273.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe483…b5a0backed Yes | 18c | 271.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbebc…4745backed Yes | 18c | 249.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 10c | 238.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf82…cdd7backed Yes | 23c | 238.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0afc…e1e4backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…696bbacked Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe4…71c8backed Yes | 15c | 149.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b0…f9a8backed No | 80c | 136.22$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcef…7d67backed No | 78c | 133.23$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4d…4c6dbacked Yes | 14c | 107.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -8.3wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x284c…7b30backed Yes | 14c | 88.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c1…05d0backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…fe70backed Yes | 27c | 57.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b5…a6b5backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eee…2782backed No | 76c | 38.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7b76backed No | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…6bcdbacked No | 73c | 17.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump's approval rating be less than 45.0% on April 11?this page
- Will Trump's approval rating be 47.5% or higher on April 11?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.4% on April 11?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.5% and 45.9% on April 11?Yes won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on April 11?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.5% and 46.9% on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.