Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.5% and 45.9% on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x968655b005fd4f9c9c7cb8d57c8afc14cce0a618e1f50364447f9fcb1c823f5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 74c | 1,730$1,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.81 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a5…834bbacked Yes | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…7123backed No | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d68…4481backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…3cbebacked No | 68c | 995$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadc1…bfedbacked Yes | 32c | 980$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0535…fe8abacked Yes | 33c | 980$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd25d…eb15backed Yes | 32c | 980$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…51f3backed No | 69c | 835$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 44c | 806.33$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.6 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x050d…e9fabacked Yes | 31c | 735$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3855…ee41backed Yes | 32c | 620$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +103.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 8c | 524.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…1a2dbacked Yes | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f77…9d8ebacked No | 65c | 402.01$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.69 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8a…865bbacked No | 62c | 400$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ad…0b30backed No | 68c | 380$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…90a1backed No | 68c | 380$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7de…b98abacked Yes | 32c | 365$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd724…e87abacked Yes | 39c | 360$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…28b9backed Yes | 32c | 345$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 20c | 300$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.36 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc14…e34cbacked No | 68c | 290$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 22c | 280.11$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.81 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa868…58dfbacked No | 62c | 270$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c6…d8a5backed No | 68c | 255$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…80d1backed No | 47c | 235.02$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.33 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bd…3c80backed Yes | 32c | 235$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 27cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 6c | 229$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 40c | 200.02$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.27 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f3…06c3backed No | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…235abacked Yes | 31c | 195$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a3…9504backed No | 68c | 175$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10c8…56f5backed No | 68c | 170$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69a…4ba7backed No | 62c | 155$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53fa…04e0backed No | 68c | 150$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 8c | 146.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 54c | 140.82$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.52 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 76c | 136.88$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed Yes | 24c | 125.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.95 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…fe4bbacked Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…160abacked No | 62c | 125$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ea…5612backed Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…3797backed Yes | 33c | 120$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9845…3fc6backed Yes | 39c | 115$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 45c | 110$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 31c | 108$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.32 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7716…316abacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 47c | 95.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 65c | 86.7$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.51 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 75c | 76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x553e…f77abacked No | 69c | 75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45ed…92e6backed Yes | 32c | 75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…481ebacked Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 16c | 65.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.18 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe4…71c8backed Yes | 70c | 60.84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecd…0486backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d0…b336backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92c…47e9backed No | 68c | 55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…7b42backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…b1b4backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…a86ebacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb9…1e9abacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.5% and 45.9% on April 11?this page
- Will Trump's approval rating be 47.5% or higher on April 11?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.4% on April 11?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on April 11?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.5% and 46.9% on April 11?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be less than 45.0% on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.