Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.4% on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87d48fa7236951b3d2c25427ad98a4b38ba032aaa229384acc857e975424a147
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6fa…a4e1backed Yes | 19c | 46,322$8,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,801.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 15c | 2,188$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.17 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 39c | 1,919$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.52 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…80d1backed Yes | 5c | 1,400$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.13 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf52b…ff3fbacked No | 61c | 1,000$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 60c | 998$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.2 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +10.2wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbb93…77b9backed Yes | 39c | 770$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…b1b4backed Yes | 39c | 639.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 23c | 634.51$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.42 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 17c | 602.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 6c | 520$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 13c | 480$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.1 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3855…ee41backed No | 61c | 460$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +103.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 5c | 429.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 52c | 360$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.8 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x243b…a150backed Yes | 39c | 345$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x663e…5916backed No | 61c | 270$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9308…e2f5backed Yes | 39c | 260$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4839…43b5backed Yes | 39c | 205$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa94e…c540backed Yes | 59c | 205$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ad…7a9bbacked Yes | 5c | 205$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 200$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 23c | 174.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…5b09backed Yes | 7c | 162.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…3797backed Yes | 8c | 157$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 155$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7846…14cabacked No | 61c | 120$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 111.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe4…71c8backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ce…3926backed No | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 78c | 75.44$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x023e…d4d2backed Yes | 45c | 66.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a78…6777backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c1…05d0backed Yes | 46c | 43.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf82…cdd7backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.4% on April 11?this page
- Will Trump's approval rating be 47.5% or higher on April 11?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.5% and 45.9% on April 11?Yes won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on April 11?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.5% and 46.9% on April 11?No won
- Will Trump's approval rating be less than 45.0% on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.