Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 400 or more times April 25–May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7d25a080d942b0ceeb5f95c2e60f42d8cbf223025723e0bfac977ee9f002201
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $168,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 6c | 22,597$1,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296.65 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8480…486ebacked Yes | 1c | 19,406$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 2c | 13,833$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.66 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe04f…cfc5backed Yes | 6c | 6,714$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.65 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 6,606$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc304…97b4backed Yes | 6c | 4,178$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.17 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 3c | 3,753$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 5c | 3,000$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.8 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 3c | 2,853$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.46 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…7340backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 3c | 1,759$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 6c | 1,576$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.35 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 5c | 1,160$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 1,012$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 6c | 1,006$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…abc3backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 64 | 6.3%4 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e25…09fbbacked Yes | 3c | 935.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 3c | 919.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 2c | 899.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 2c | 799.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb205…7cd7backed Yes | 3c | 675$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 2c | 663.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 235 | 41.3%97 W · 138 L | -29.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 633.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…3c32backed Yes | 5c | 624.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…7e5fbacked Yes | 2c | 551$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6527…284abacked Yes | 4c | 456.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 6cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 447.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 4c | 299.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee8…57b4backed Yes | 3c | 299.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…7e59backed Yes | 7c | 290.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dd…7564backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 400 or more times April 25–May 2?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–124 times April 25–May 2?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125–149 times April 25–May 2?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times April 25–May 2?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times April 25–May 2?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times April 25–May 2?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times April 25–May 2?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times April 25–May 2?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times April 25–May 2?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times April 25–May 2?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times April 25–May 2?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350–374 times April 25–May 2?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375–399 times April 25–May 2?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 25–May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.