TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 13 to February 20, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$44,449
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,981

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,449 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x294a…bbbabacked No65c1,327$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.312626.9%7 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+210.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x85a4…7412backed Yes40c1,232$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes12c1,114$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.0866222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes3c1,039$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.928423.8%20 W · 64 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84c3…6efebacked Yes5c1,030$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.927915.2%12 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-59.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x95bd…b9bebacked No76c1,026$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.752972.4%21 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick74cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes32c897.54$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.3430714%43 W · 264 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48af…89ccbacked Yes13c895.91$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1181827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick20cpaid-25.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x55bf…9ee3backed Yes20c684.06$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1358527.1%23 W · 62 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes10c636.47$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.711189.3%11 W · 107 L-0.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-45.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes7c609.75$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.065045.2%26 W · 478 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+44.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1137…978dbacked Yes19c526.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010032%32 W · 68 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes11c497.85$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1814025.7%36 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes37c490.31$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.8518618.3%34 W · 152 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b1a…4221backed No78c462.62$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.992045%9 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-36.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9f80…7a52backed Yes17c419$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.575238.5%20 W · 32 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes17c411.1$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7313315.8%21 W · 112 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes13c403.9$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0559225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x418f…44fabacked No59c394.17$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c372.25$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.222,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4d0…af08backed Yes4c361.17$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.31425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-59%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No79c346.54$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.9543933%145 W · 294 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f53…b0b3backed Yes19c318.76$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74d6…63a7backed Yes4c314.08$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick3cpaid+1,677%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes27c309.88$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.561,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes37c300$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.311931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-40.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes20c295$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6476821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9cd…17acbacked Yes35c287.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003935.9%14 W · 25 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-13.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes27c274.59$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.6937830.7%116 W · 262 L-17.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes16c269.52$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.925111.8%6 W · 45 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-42.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes5c261$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.023315.2%5 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick17cpaid+24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac9…d570backed Yes24c254.5$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9484…a173backed Yes26c250$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6540016.8%67 W · 333 L-0.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeed0…8817backed Yes41c243.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002425%6 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-41.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked No79c230$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.522040%8 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb260…715abacked Yes25c224.55$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.086532.3%21 W · 44 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-40.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be5…c197backed Yes29c210.06$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614327.9%12 W · 31 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+49.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed No59c209.03$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.2610727.1%29 W · 78 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-49.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f38…c97cbacked No59c207.6$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb336…5091backed Yes41c207.59$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes17c200.82$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9929225%73 W · 219 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b84…9ba4backed Yes9c200$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171225%3 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-51%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes22c179.14$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9152619.8%104 W · 422 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes39c161.84$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5978811.5%91 W · 697 L-33.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes11c158.75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.471,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fbc…f36fbacked No60c150$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.7666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+22.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69a4…0d38backed Yes17c150$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.45425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No73c149.39$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.1679735.9%286 W · 511 L-34.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes29c135.46$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9111421.9%25 W · 89 L-0.4wins0.00per pick22cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes13c129.93$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6451845.9%238 W · 280 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes30c122.76$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6219550.3%98 W · 97 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbad…0661backed Yes12c118.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145230.8%16 W · 36 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked Yes16c116.47$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1710330.1%31 W · 72 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8778…73febacked Yes18c110.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205612.5%7 W · 49 L+0.2wins0.00per pick12cpaid+25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5df…307dbacked Yes41c105.7$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.342832.1%9 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb637…4c42backed Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394332.6%14 W · 29 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+55.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b83…008bbacked Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.955714%8 W · 49 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-46.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x477b…7b63backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.619828.6%28 W · 70 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3a…aa37backed Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.738010%38 W · 342 L+0.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25c2…08c7backed No60c99.99$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.098619.8%17 W · 69 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes17c94.17$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5434039.7%135 W · 205 L-12.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes23c91$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.843221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74b8…f901backed Yes39c87.08$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.11812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-60%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb631…8a87backed Yes15c86.34$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.688916.9%15 W · 74 L-6.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-46%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8e4c…3880backed No59c75$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb6…ff78backed Yes41c72.64$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes38c68.79$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.141921.1%4 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No68c68.51$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1231565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.17533.3%25 W · 50 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd423…d8b1backed No77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.45742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-41.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3382…67cbbacked Yes41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.532924.1%7 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-35.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x823d…2db3backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick40cpaid-63.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0afd…b9c9backed Yes41c49.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.42462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf775…f817backed Yes24c49.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.155414.8%8 W · 46 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa601…cad0backed No75c49.99$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.553026.7%8 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x40e9…2eacbacked Yes31c48.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151225%3 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+31.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No74c48$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2524932.9%82 W · 167 L-33.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-46.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x472a…2dadbacked Yes40c44.32$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.73911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.31per pick42cpaid-77.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4dd8…5972backed Yes38c44.02$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6930%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5690…25a3backed Yes35c40.79$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.271435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+63.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x36fa…1125backed Yes35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.95450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5699…418dbacked No59c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.441330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e2e…d1a1backed No76c32.81$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8567…10b6backed Yes46c32.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked No80c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610335.9%37 W · 66 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+108%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5bd…ceaabacked Yes38c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.43333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-54.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23eb…c516backed No80c29.86$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.091540%6 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes40c28.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.47560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x913f…916dbacked No69c26.53$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.261915.8%3 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4b4…6bb9backed No64c23.2$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.35250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed No79c22.01$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.646243.5%27 W · 35 L-6.7wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-27%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbfe0…192abacked No79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.243868.4%26 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick72cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e5b…13dfbacked No79c19.92$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d35…f929backed No79c19.73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.24955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x073f…300bbacked No79c17.47$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.673100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.