TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from February 13 to February 20, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,053
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,504

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,053 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes9c870.65$79 inLost-$78.7330714%43 W · 264 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes4c531.09$24 inLost-$23.845111.8%6 W · 45 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-42.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes11c493.91$56 inLost-$56.4913315.8%21 W · 112 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48af…89ccbacked Yes3c457.41$15 inLost-$14.781827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick20cpaid-25.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f53…b0b3backed Yes12c417.79$50 inLost-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes3c403.9$12 inLost-$11.8559225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes7c393$28 inLost-$27.641,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes5c295$14 inLost-$13.6676821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f80…7a52backed Yes8c270.5$21 inLost-$21.175238.5%20 W · 32 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes4c253.18$10 inLost-$10.145045.2%26 W · 478 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+44.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68e6…a350backed Yes11c207.54$23 inLost-$22.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ff1…675ebacked Yes6c204.48$12 inLost-$12.16520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-60%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes8c140$12 inLost-$11.5951018.2%93 W · 417 L-89.7wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-49.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.