TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$84,456
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$85,056

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,456 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb436…bb3cbacked Yes78c6,262$4,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,387.594182.9%34 W · 7 L+10.5wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+42%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x9155…de7cbacked No17c5,871$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.91127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-54.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1057…9ea5backed No20c4,375$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.31154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid-17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes37c3,149$1,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,981.9512630.2%38 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd47c…77f4backed No4c2,482$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-24.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f55…c139backed No4c2,394$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2761…4013backed No7c2,146$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-59.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x50ca…2d2cbacked No22c2,031$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43cf…88fabacked Yes77c1,746$1,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.592653.8%14 W · 12 L+5.0wins+0.19per pick35cpaid+30.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No4c1,655$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.751227.4%9 W · 113 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-63.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…9652backed No26c1,332$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.19922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed No31c942.96$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.243735.1%13 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-47%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a13…4593backed No75c750$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.52157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fac…3e5abacked No7c688.9$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8ef…02e0backed No5c634.61$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff05…fad7backed No2c623.72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1293.4%1 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-86.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83d7…317fbacked No3c622.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No4c616.55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.916930.4%21 W · 48 L-6.9wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-46.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed No23c603.82$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.462850%14 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No3c600$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.31343.7%5 W · 129 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1acd…c664backed No8c600$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-23.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No3c594.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.95943.2%3 W · 91 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick12cpaid-69.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e36…e5ccbacked No2c544.46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc01…d914backed No11c530.4$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.95633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd42…a978backed No5c515.76$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2640%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01a2…25e7backed No4c514.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd31c…7424backed Yes80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+123.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a2…a2dcbacked No3c464.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1550%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No20c442.94$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.1244111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked No2c441.44$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.614311.6%5 W · 38 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick6cpaid+61.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed No3c400$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.55710.5%6 W · 51 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+75.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed No3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2372.7%1 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-68.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes52c348.92$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.034247.6%20 W · 22 L+5.6wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc391…24d1backed No6c341.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f62…e744backed No46c322.93$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.552030%6 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-53.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc624…ee24backed No38c279.65$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.123458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes63c279.26$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.372147.6%10 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick34cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x293b…5d33backed No5c272.13$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.240%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked No21c240$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.22138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-44.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc210…8b21backed No19c237.78$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.181338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No75c200$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14969634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa800…bd7abacked No6c184.84$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-59.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a63…6266backed No24c180.42$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5480…0330backed No11c174.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed Yes74c173.12$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.012759.3%16 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf108…25aebacked No23c170.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-73.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No43c156.95$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7431840.3%128 W · 190 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed Yes76c130.77$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-56.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf900…cd0cbacked No44c130.65$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.49714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-58.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x548b…43fdbacked No11c126.84$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa2c…c5aebacked No63c126.81$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No14c125$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.751,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4575…9628backed No9c124.04$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.644816.7%8 W · 40 L-6.1wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-62.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes40c119$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7155618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257751.9%40 W · 37 L+9.1wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+50.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdec2…b015backed No28c92.18$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.15119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3670…f55ebacked No45c88.89$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4060%0 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No26c84.62$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0433618.5%62 W · 274 L-46.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x9797…c193backed Yes36c77.81$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.42922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-52.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Yes57c77.45$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.31457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa647…6e9cbacked No21c71.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2e4…b1cfbacked No23c65.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0ac…990dbacked No30c62.53$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.041070%7 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+25%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No51c55.56$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.341,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed No45c46.64$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.994837.5%18 W · 30 L-5.6wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-31.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa31d…789bbacked Yes23c45.17$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe672…45cebacked Yes58c41.8$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7412…d234backed Yes37c40$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5c5…1cc8backed No75c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4326…c3a8backed Yes54c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.61741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd742…f678backed Yes76c38$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.12250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6da0…cc9cbacked No77c25.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeac2…7bebbacked No56c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4325…c0f5backed Yes54c23.3$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2387…abe1backed No76c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.21758.8%10 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No74c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101513.3%2 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-69.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.