Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2875ffa3eada2f0a05ac4de7676566ab3f44ab477db1162902f537f406007b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb436…bb3cbacked Yes | 78c | 6,262$4,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,387.59 | 41 | 82.9%34 W · 7 L | +10.5wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +42%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9155…de7cbacked No | 17c | 5,871$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1057…9ea5backed No | 20c | 4,375$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.3 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 37c | 3,149$1,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,981.95 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd47c…77f4backed No | 4c | 2,482$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f55…c139backed No | 4c | 2,394$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4013backed No | 7c | 2,146$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50ca…2d2cbacked No | 22c | 2,031$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked Yes | 77c | 1,746$1,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.59 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 4c | 1,655$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…9652backed No | 26c | 1,332$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.19 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 31c | 942.96$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.24 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a13…4593backed No | 75c | 750$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.5 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fac…3e5abacked No | 7c | 688.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ef…02e0backed No | 5c | 634.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…fad7backed No | 2c | 623.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…317fbacked No | 3c | 622.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 4c | 616.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 23c | 603.82$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.46 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1acd…c664backed No | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 3c | 594.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 94 | 3.2%3 W · 91 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e36…e5ccbacked No | 2c | 544.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc01…d914backed No | 11c | 530.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd42…a978backed No | 5c | 515.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a2…25e7backed No | 4c | 514.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…7424backed Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a2…a2dcbacked No | 3c | 464.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 20c | 442.94$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.12 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 2c | 441.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 3c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 52c | 348.92$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.03 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc391…24d1backed No | 6c | 341.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed No | 46c | 322.93$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.55 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed No | 38c | 279.65$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.12 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 63c | 279.26$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.37 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…5d33backed No | 5c | 272.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 21c | 240$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…8b21backed No | 19c | 237.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 200$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked No | 6c | 184.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…6266backed No | 24c | 180.42$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5480…0330backed No | 11c | 174.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed Yes | 74c | 173.12$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf108…25aebacked No | 23c | 170.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 43c | 156.95$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.74 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 76c | 130.77$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 44c | 130.65$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.49 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x548b…43fdbacked No | 11c | 126.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2c…c5aebacked No | 63c | 126.81$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 14c | 125$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 9c | 124.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 40c | 119$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +9.1wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdec2…b015backed No | 28c | 92.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3670…f55ebacked No | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 26c | 84.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed Yes | 36c | 77.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.42 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked Yes | 57c | 77.45$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…6e9cbacked No | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e4…b1cfbacked No | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked No | 30c | 62.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 55.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 45c | 46.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa31d…789bbacked Yes | 23c | 45.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe672…45cebacked Yes | 58c | 41.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…d234backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…1cc8backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…c3a8backed Yes | 54c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd742…f678backed Yes | 76c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da0…cc9cbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeac2…7bebbacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4325…c0f5backed Yes | 54c | 23.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…abe1backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 13?this page
- Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.