Us Midterms · resolved market
Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 5% and 10.00%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4541687a2cf28e579a217b06ae2c64ceff7ad42bf96821da396c563c34d415f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,092 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 62c | 23,568$14,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,679.69 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 56c | 16,937$9,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,475.16 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 31c | 6,500$2,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,462.37 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 26c | 6,015$1,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,453.32 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 53c | 4,350$2,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,048.17 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9e…3723backed Yes | 55c | 2,320$1,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 1c | 1,970$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…fad7backed No | 1c | 1,389$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 46c | 1,213$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.95 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 44c | 1,082$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 76c | 1,011$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.79 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked No | 32c | 999.97$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.99 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 47c | 995.91$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.76 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 18c | 944.07$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.28 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 24c | 920.61$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.98 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9401…e9ffbacked Yes | 13c | 916.41$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.28 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed Yes | 25c | 794.11$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47eb…8195backed Yes | 13c | 791$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed Yes | 15c | 732$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Yes | 24c | 660.41$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.91 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 26c | 630.94$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.1 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 78c | 463.15$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.26 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…bb4abacked Yes | 27c | 455.3$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.6 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc1…0c67backed Yes | 70c | 374.99$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.08 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 55c | 368.1$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.17 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…cd36backed Yes | 15c | 359$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +135.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc09c…682ebacked Yes | 78c | 299.99$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 63c | 288.75$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.34 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 28c | 285.71$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.71 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +9.0wins | +0.34per pick | 23cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 26c | 282$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.2 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 55c | 256.72$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.35 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 24c | 237.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.59 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 43c | 225.22$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.18 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 18c | 215$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.1 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 76c | 201.87$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…aee5backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 18c | 200$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 9c | 187.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 17c | 185.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 39c | 176.49$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.1 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3d…7a79backed Yes | 65c | 172.84$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb16…72bfbacked Yes | 64c | 164.03$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f2d0backed No | 34c | 162.88$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.08 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd7…1c90backed Yes | 74c | 145.84$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 76c | 133.28$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.29 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 105$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0da7…ca6cbacked Yes | 64c | 101.56$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5725…36e3backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…3ca0backed Yes | 70c | 89$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…ae31backed Yes | 24c | 83.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 20cpaid | +157.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 13c | 81.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.89 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89eb…8da5backed No | 74c | 74.85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfa…b4e9backed Yes | 28c | 71.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdb…81e6backed Yes | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x442e…a738backed Yes | 67c | 59.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 69c | 55.77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe151…a852backed No | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…98f5backed Yes | 27c | 47.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf4…7021backed No | 55c | 42.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b69…42cfbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 28.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…1a0fbacked No | 78c | 24.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 60cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 50c | 24.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…3377backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +154%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb98…5438backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 59c | 17.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 5% and 10.00%?this page
- Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by 15% or more?No won
- Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 0% and 5.00%?No won
- Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 10% and 15.00%?No won
- Will Jasmine Crockett win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by 5% or more?No won
- Will Jasmine Crockett win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 0% and 5.00%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.