Us Midterms · resolved market
Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 0% and 5.00%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fa27719f93edb889bd3abe7064c67111827e3432309ec81516d7b4207b1cf39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,058 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56c9…afe7backed Yes | 26c | 19,195$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 14c | 11,479$1,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,631.57 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 78c | 6,503$5,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419.03 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 22c | 6,047$1,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,358.42 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 9c | 5,917$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.41 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 69c | 5,179$3,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,628.47 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 71c | 4,744$3,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365.13 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 10c | 3,127$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.58 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78f1…3d58backed Yes | 30c | 2,504$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 19c | 1,330$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb698…5ae5backed No | 76c | 1,081$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.44 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc990…6a32backed Yes | 20c | 1,074$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 20c | 972.75$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.82 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…68cabacked Yes | 12c | 891$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…bb4abacked Yes | 20c | 874.4$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.68 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…7f4fbacked Yes | 16c | 775$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9e…3723backed Yes | 16c | 704.29$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 15c | 636.4$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.14 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 9c | 625.1$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce9…c289backed No | 76c | 622$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 35c | 605$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.75 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd96e…1ea6backed Yes | 16c | 447$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf295…508fbacked No | 76c | 423$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 34c | 410.04$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.62 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +9.0wins | +0.34per pick | 23cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5819…f3a3backed Yes | 27c | 377.49$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 10c | 324.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…95b1backed Yes | 19c | 315.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 21c | 311$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.47 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 18c | 299.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 6c | 264.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5462…eed6backed Yes | 32c | 249.96$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.33 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 14c | 249.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 5c | 222$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad6…cc62backed Yes | 23c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 20c | 184.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 20c | 182.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd7…1c90backed Yes | 14c | 179.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 137.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 117$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x00b3…0991backed No | 76c | 104$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 61cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b36…acebbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…98f5backed Yes | 21c | 80.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdb…81e6backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 79.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfa…b4e9backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…5945backed Yes | 34c | 43.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.34per pick | 30cpaid | +135.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa68a…3ab8backed Yes | 34c | 31.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed No | 71c | 23.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbde0…f67bbacked No | 70c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 76c | 13.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 0% and 5.00%?this page
- Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by 15% or more?No won
- Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 10% and 15.00%?No won
- Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 5% and 10.00%?Yes won
- Will Jasmine Crockett win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by 5% or more?No won
- Will Jasmine Crockett win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 0% and 5.00%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.