Us Midterms · resolved market
Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 10% and 15.00%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x527b22d0a13317e1b06de46bc38fde54131e32670e8af92f3b0d936924678743
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,837 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 27c | 19,150$5,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,167.37 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +103%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 1c | 8,792$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.04 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 10c | 8,751$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.19 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 74c | 8,089$6,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,073.32 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 11c | 6,972$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.33 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 70c | 6,629$4,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,963.5 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 30c | 6,097$1,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,826.85 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 25c | 4,500$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7b…4c93backed Yes | 3c | 3,911$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 5c | 2,261$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.46 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 17c | 1,563$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.65 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc1…0c67backed Yes | 26c | 1,465$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.66 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9e…3723backed Yes | 69c | 1,428$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$978.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked Yes | 12c | 963$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed Yes | 24c | 707.14$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.04 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 23c | 641.16$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.48 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9401…e9ffbacked Yes | 23c | 595.39$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.77 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 59c | 565.5$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.12 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…1683backed Yes | 14c | 564$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 76c | 555.15$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 8c | 437.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.30per pick | 16cpaid | +141.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…3ea7backed Yes | 14c | 430$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…b300backed Yes | 14c | 421$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes | 14c | 420$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…3377backed No | 75c | 400$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +154%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed Yes | 14c | 386$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 24c | 378.51$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.71 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5516…2263backed Yes | 13c | 373$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 20c | 359$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 63c | 345.78$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.34 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 13c | 284.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…ad61backed Yes | 14c | 279$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed Yes | 13c | 276$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 70c | 259.33$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.47 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 23c | 210$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5aa…c200backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 42cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Yes | 26c | 192.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked No | 77c | 169.04$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x385f…3c30backed Yes | 14c | 166$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.31per pick | 43cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc65b…bbf3backed Yes | 33c | 159.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 18c | 154.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…a5b8backed Yes | 14c | 118$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc20c…e2bdbacked No | 49c | 106.04$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe151…a852backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 20c | 99.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b36…acebbacked Yes | 25c | 76.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4a…850fbacked Yes | 29c | 57.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdb…81e6backed Yes | 26c | 57.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acb…faeebacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…b4f2backed Yes | 24c | 43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b69…42cfbacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 51c | 25.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 70c | 14.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 10% and 15.00%?this page
- Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by 15% or more?No won
- Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 0% and 5.00%?No won
- Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 5% and 10.00%?Yes won
- Will Jasmine Crockett win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by 5% or more?No won
- Will Jasmine Crockett win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 0% and 5.00%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.