Us Politics · resolved market
Nothing Ever Happens: Conspiracy Edition
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c0bee564e7a7481b71c4b3bdab5e7099edad0d8b8239ac5911e53375b1be43e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5440…98d2backed No | 5c | 4,633$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9b…d4e5backed No | 1c | 3,567$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…fad7backed No | 1c | 3,159$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 2,712$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.26 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd3…e1cfbacked No | 1c | 2,621$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1771…ab0ebacked No | 1c | 2,342$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x231e…9297backed No | 4c | 2,059$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…0540backed No | 2c | 1,963$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 2c | 1,457$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb012…356fbacked No | 3c | 1,448$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked No | 2c | 1,395$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…99eabacked No | 5c | 1,208$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -85%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbab9…9d74backed No | 2c | 1,157$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked No | 2c | 1,137$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed No | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…1e14backed No | 3c | 893.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6735…f5b7backed No | 1c | 873.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802c…5ca2backed No | 3c | 616.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce3…f779backed No | 5c | 577$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x393e…6056backed No | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked No | 4c | 395.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x031b…babcbacked No | 7c | 360.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb9…e5cbbacked No | 5c | 220$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.