TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$851,756
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$839,014

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $851,756 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 223 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3413…5204backed Yes6c50,120$3,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,187.943818.4%7 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes9c29,766$2,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,569.7813540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes8c28,480$2,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,169.2818425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes6c27,501$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,649.5533313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes11c24,974$2,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,795.78368.3%3 W · 33 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-78.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xebaa…abacbacked Yes0c19,994$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.99280%0 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe899…0899backed Yes24c19,621$4,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,615.511631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+127.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f68…1a2dbacked Yes12c15,331$1,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,783.6850%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9706…13b9backed Yes7c14,083$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.37527.7%4 W · 48 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-81.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes2c9,497$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.563912.8%5 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes4c9,068$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.18036.3%29 W · 51 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes5c7,696$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.63215.6%5 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes5c6,446$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.9718746.5%87 W · 100 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes6c6,082$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.1213029.2%38 W · 92 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes1c6,000$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.3190%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes13c5,705$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.587331.5%23 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2f6…a94cbacked Yes17c5,646$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd399…d13ebacked Yes5c5,575$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.94425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+63.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes5c5,555$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.794814.6%7 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes5c5,323$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.461428.5%12 W · 130 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes7c5,049$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.8610324.3%25 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xedc0…99f3backed Yes3c4,714$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.622931%9 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-30.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked No76c4,681$3,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,114.542626.9%7 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5242…7aa6backed Yes15c4,526$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66640%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes2c4,500$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.52825%7 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c4,244$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.771,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes12c4,000$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.428632.6%28 W · 58 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf56b…3a22backed Yes7c3,749$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3af…146fbacked Yes7c3,726$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes7c3,500$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.4218725.1%47 W · 140 L+10.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes4c3,373$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.219533.7%32 W · 63 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x833c…f919backed Yes22c3,337$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes1c3,198$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6411010%11 W · 99 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes9c3,172$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.477244.4%32 W · 40 L+8.7wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+15.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x59da…ee69backed Yes1c3,072$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x920a…cb78backed Yes13c3,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed0c…5e23backed Yes15c2,940$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.03425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes4c2,847$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.18175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-89%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes7c2,800$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.7917633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes10c2,689$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.582814.3%4 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9612…0a13backed Yes8c2,669$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-68.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes2c2,637$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.32277.4%2 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes16c2,578$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.4511031.8%35 W · 75 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xff05…fad7backed Yes0c2,548$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.34293.4%1 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-86.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb708…8856backed Yes4c2,536$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed No71c2,500$1,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7154353.5%23 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes2c2,500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6013714.6%20 W · 117 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa667…84febacked Yes3c2,486$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.52030%6 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-42.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5273…d975backed Yes23c2,449$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.76520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb675…3d65backed Yes15c2,434$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3703060%18 W · 12 L+5.2wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x78e4…62cabacked Yes1c2,400$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.260%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked Yes4c2,139$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.566833.8%23 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-40.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes4c2,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80287.1%2 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Yes14c1,991$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.543330.3%10 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-35.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes5c1,982$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.162010%2 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-73.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c1,881$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.09787.7%6 W · 72 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2148…639ebacked Yes2c1,812$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0850%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71e5…50a4backed Yes7c1,808$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.14812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick6cpaid-32.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c1,713$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.761343.7%5 W · 129 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8ef…5ba1backed Yes1c1,653$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes7c1,636$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.3655618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3217…7d40backed Yes20c1,582$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+65.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaedf…c648backed Yes13c1,575$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes1c1,572$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.12419.8%4 W · 37 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes1c1,525$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.373813.2%5 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick5cpaid+47.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb029…94afbacked Yes7c1,429$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No71c1,399$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.17441.9%31 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes1c1,393$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.15333%1 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-67.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8864…2c6abacked Yes4c1,375$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8166.3%1 W · 15 L-3.2wins-0.20per pick26cpaid-88.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4b1a…2d41backed Yes18c1,294$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes27c1,246$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.91770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+48.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6358…cc23backed Yes7c1,215$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.051050%5 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+157.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd18d…fc51backed Yes33c1,180$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.432035%7 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes18c1,169$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.1428320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes14c1,152$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.9112839.8%51 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e79…ecf8backed Yes17c1,150$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc099…2ea5backed Yes9c1,111$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002030%6 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+60.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6fe8…f492backed Yes28c1,102$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes6c1,076$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.716015%9 W · 51 L-0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid-61.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8e3…f4a0backed Yes13c1,066$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.541926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-50.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6f…70edbacked Yes1c1,048$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes1c1,042$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.62210%0 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes1c1,030$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.29397.7%3 W · 36 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-55.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes10c1,008$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9611541.7%48 W · 67 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6037844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3bef…9a71backed Yes7c1,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes2c1,000$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.513216.7%22 W · 110 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid+19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203551.4%18 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+10.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x83a2…9452backed Yes7c1,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704240.5%17 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x919e…d915backed Yes21c984$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.523218.8%6 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-55.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf60…1867backed Yes11c909.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes5c892.82$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.611419.3%22 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd39f…d494backed Yes13c853.85$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick12cpaid+39.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes7c840.98$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8939522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes3c777$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.854139%16 W · 25 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+69.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes6c750$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455916.9%10 W · 49 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-62.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e35…7c22backed Yes24c748.22$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6721…c965backed Yes8c708.04$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-56.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62d5…78d1backed Yes7c706.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507672.4%55 W · 21 L+14.7wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+36.8%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes3c700$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.114125.5%36 W · 105 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.