TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$338,707
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$321,195

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $338,707 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xebaa…abacbacked Yes0c19,991$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.99280%0 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes3c11,545$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.7933313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8134…da0abacked Yes5c8,211$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes3c6,591$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.51287.1%2 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5699…418dbacked Yes3c4,806$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02b8…8b2cbacked Yes3c4,457$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12be…5e76backed Yes1c4,001$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes2c3,783$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.53368.3%3 W · 33 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-78.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed Yes9c3,434$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.857428.4%21 W · 53 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes1c3,270$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.272626.9%7 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-35.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b29…872cbacked Yes3c3,017$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes3c3,001$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.062425%6 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-53.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd39f…d494backed Yes4c2,648$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick12cpaid+39.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf503…39e2backed Yes2c2,375$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.81428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes9c2,340$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.133721.6%8 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.12per pick10cpaid+110.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x78e4…62cabacked Yes1c1,800$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.260%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c1,788$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.141,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0432…114fbacked Yes5c1,752$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick38cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes4c1,744$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.0196319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes6c1,560$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.34126.8%11 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes3c1,485$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.43175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-89%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes10c1,430$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.5155618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Yes3c999.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304833.3%16 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes4c999.95$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.586015%9 W · 51 L-0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid-61.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes1c940$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.648036.3%29 W · 51 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes8c799.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6239522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes4c773.98$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.653989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes3c685$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.795614.3%8 W · 48 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes2c677.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.744117.1%7 W · 34 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-50.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x61e2…4958backed Yes3c656.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef37…1287backed Yes3c603.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes2c564.02$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7310324.3%25 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes2c523.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.11626.5%4 W · 58 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-60.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes3c505.42$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5514624.7%36 W · 110 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes10c499.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5099629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7c51…de90backed Yes4c469$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c08…e238backed Yes5c442.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fb1…7792backed Yes4c416$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x281a…0463backed Yes3c403$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0404…8353backed Yes3c400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.24911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.26per pick37cpaid-83.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb295…3a9fbacked Yes6c384$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.69911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick32cpaid-82.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x23d8…31c5backed Yes4c342$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x975c…fec8backed Yes4c339$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa966…208bbacked Yes3c334$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.02137.7%1 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick7cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3db8…55d4backed Yes4c323$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35f6…c798backed Yes4c315$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb3c…2f42backed Yes4c312$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17a5…e00abacked Yes3c300$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-66.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8331…4492backed Yes4c294$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb364…fea0backed Yes4c288$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b6a…493ebacked Yes4c287$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa712…94eabacked Yes5c287$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48b…0c36backed Yes4c285$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf313…5d09backed Yes4c281$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fa8…af37backed Yes4c275$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fcb…c051backed Yes4c275$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddda…35cdbacked Yes4c274$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae1d…e958backed Yes4c265$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53e4…9ef7backed Yes4c265$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3f9…c565backed Yes4c263$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a9f…9f07backed Yes4c262$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7186…ce03backed Yes5c260$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb973…5ee1backed Yes4c255$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd11f…128fbacked Yes4c251$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x321b…0c54backed Yes4c250$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad2d…3463backed Yes4c250$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x327e…adb3backed Yes4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3d1…4663backed Yes4c247$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aae…1eb1backed Yes4c246$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb59c…9b66backed Yes4c245.9$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd90…5446backed Yes4c242$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f49…77c1backed Yes4c239$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb409…4478backed Yes4c237$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c4…26fcbacked Yes4c229$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x535e…325ebacked Yes4c229$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810632.1%34 W · 72 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b59…ba17backed Yes8c187.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+72.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3f3…922abacked Yes8c160$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1416144.7%72 W · 89 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2675…2374backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148544.7%38 W · 47 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+21%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.