TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$85,693
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$86,672

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,693 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xebaa…abacbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost-$20280%0 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c6,846$77 inLost-$76.781,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe334…a8f6backed Yes1c4,004$40 inLost-$40.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes3c1,651$54 inLost-$53.65368.3%3 W · 33 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-78.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes2c1,272$27 inLost-$26.883818.4%7 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed Yes2c1,069$17 inLost-$16.735326.4%14 W · 39 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf6d…22a0backed Yes2c996.84$20 inLost-$19.9880%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes3c978.54$31 inLost-$31.31287.1%2 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes3c970.15$28 inLost-$27.6135519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d92…e287backed Yes5c949.69$50 inLost-$50850%4 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+49%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes4c902.7$33 inLost-$32.9796319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes3c887.54$31 inLost-$30.59626.5%4 W · 58 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-60.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes3c763.49$20 inLost-$19.8833313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes10c681.59$65 inLost-$65.2155618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes3c629.83$20 inLost-$20.495614.3%8 W · 48 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Yes4c617.65$25 inLost-$24.714833.3%16 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes8c514.11$41 inLost-$40.714126.8%11 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes4c436.09$20 inLost-$19.512425%6 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-53.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes4c407.8$17 inLost-$17.2314624.7%36 W · 110 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9706…13b9backed Yes5c400$20 inLost-$20527.7%4 W · 48 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-81.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x108f…7937backed Yes4c345.22$13 inLost-$12.930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes4c300$13 inLost-$12.712631.7%40 W · 86 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-39.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b06…0695backed Yes4c284$11 inLost-$10.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes10c282.32$28 inLost-$28.2339522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x327e…adb3backed Yes4c243.9$10 inLost-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed Yes11c213.13$23 inLost-$23.4614819.6%29 W · 119 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb167…f6e8backed Yes10c100$10 inLost-$101822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-44.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.