TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$79,975
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$81,915

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,975 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3b44…264ebacked Yes74c6,609$4,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,726.323560%21 W · 14 L+7.5wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+85.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x5172…0581backed No2c6,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203112.9%4 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick8cpaid+96.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes8c5,149$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,730.816544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No25c4,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00016535.8%59 W · 106 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+86.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No2c4,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8011121.6%24 W · 87 L+11.4wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+179.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No2c4,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8011120.7%23 W · 88 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+212.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes10c2,916$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,633.79626.5%4 W · 58 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-60.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes69c2,601$1,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.173818.4%7 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed No38c2,326$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.374955.1%27 W · 22 L+4.5wins+0.09per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc178…35b3backed No26c2,306$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.563966.7%26 W · 13 L+10.2wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+133.6%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x0a9f…3e01backed Yes8c1,631$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,494.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.92per pick8cpaid+1,090.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes6c1,400$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,315.98287.1%2 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x855d…349fbacked No6c1,161$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaedf…c648backed Yes10c1,042$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes16c1,009$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.3399629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108737.9%33 W · 54 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes6c999.98$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.985149%25 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+28.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xea9a…64b1backed Yes12c833.66$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.66633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick12cpaid+94.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x28c3…da06backed Yes7c734.33$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.92333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick10cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes9c674.01$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.355928.8%17 W · 42 L+6.6wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+80.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes77c652.05$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.2337844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes15c640.41$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.674126.8%11 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cea…f32abacked Yes9c610.33$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.537934.2%27 W · 52 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+16.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes13c579.22$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.3455618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dde…94c3backed No77c550$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.23161.3%19 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5cd…e2efbacked Yes10c512.2$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.21618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+25.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes8c501$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.1933313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011010%11 W · 99 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc99c…f913backed Yes8c500$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes9c500$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45319328.5%55 W · 138 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes9c480$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4381466.2%9 W · 137 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c9f…e8c9backed Yes7c472.86$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.961464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+98%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No52c432$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.698036.3%29 W · 51 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No10c360$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4844111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes8c300$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27610127.7%28 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cab…7222backed Yes18c277.78$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.783525.7%9 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes17c260$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.85437%20 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes6c255$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.6435519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb20…cfa5backed No16c242.71$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes11c231.51$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.312533.6%42 W · 83 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed Yes11c223$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.8514819.6%29 W · 119 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes6c203.61$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.394814.6%7 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xada4…48babacked Yes7c150$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139214.8%1 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick15cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes16c139$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.421,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5bb9…1f8fbacked No18c138.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1834…795abacked Yes9c133.33$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.332240.9%9 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+40.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No26c114$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.644942.9%21 W · 28 L+12.8wins+0.26per pick17cpaid+218.5%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed Yes13c110.88$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.768226.8%22 W · 60 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b3c…5eddbacked Yes15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+96.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked Yes21c80$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+123.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f39…8ad7backed Yes16c64.06$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.06714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-8.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes28c60$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.911529.6%34 W · 81 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes17c60$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.66526.2%17 W · 48 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf29e…3bccbacked No20c50.97$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.19333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No61c31.49$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2114935.6%53 W · 96 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.