TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$99,994
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$97,087

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,994 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xebaa…abacbacked Yes0c19,982$20 inLost-$19.98280%0 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c5,778$42 inLost-$41.621,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa667…84febacked Yes4c4,978$176 inLost-$176.252030%6 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-42.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes4c4,474$162 inLost-$161.9433313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96df…1f97backed Yes4c2,882$115 inLost-$115.451145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes3c2,467$76 inLost-$76.48287.1%2 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbb4…36c3backed Yes4c1,943$73 inLost-$7340%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes4c1,829$68 inLost-$68.465614.3%8 W · 48 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaedf…c648backed Yes6c1,782$99 inLost-$99128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes4c1,000$40 inLost-$39.86015%9 W · 51 L-0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid-61.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes3c930.07$32 inLost-$31.8596319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b44…264ebacked Yes3c842.7$25 inLost-$25.223560%21 W · 14 L+7.5wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+85.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes5c765.96$40 inLost-$39.5155618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b26…9bc4backed Yes6c673.33$40 inLost-$40.430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes2c622.95$15 inLost-$14.79368.3%3 W · 33 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-78.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b73…4766backed Yes5c525.45$25 inLost-$253135.5%11 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4898…b591backed Yes5c487$23 inLost-$23.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Yes4c421.35$15 inLost-$14.755837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes6c399.99$22 inLost-$2239522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0404…8353backed Yes3c359.46$12 inLost-$12.28911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.26per pick37cpaid-83.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xad76…c715backed Yes3c334$10 inLost-$10.02333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes5c300$15 inLost-$1519328.5%55 W · 138 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes6c293$16 inLost-$16.418425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf94e…2121backed Yes5c213$10 inLost-$10.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.