Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9ace1cb7c36d299fad55876eb3ea31679ea9560f109817dfb29ec0591a4de9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $208,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $235,719
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $208,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x748f…6898backed Yes | 43c | 30,652$13,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,179.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebaa…abacbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 5c | 6,738$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.16 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…84febacked Yes | 2c | 6,168$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.82 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed No | 26c | 6,083$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,492.84 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…6896backed Yes | 6c | 5,500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 3c | 4,819$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.37 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,342$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 4c | 3,076$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,956.04 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8298…b978backed Yes | 7c | 2,700$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.9 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.02 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +157.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,847$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 4c | 1,811$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.57 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9706…13b9backed Yes | 3c | 1,787$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.73 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,753$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.15 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 4c | 1,750$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 2c | 1,414$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…8b4bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,282$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7c…596cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6359…de88backed Yes | 10c | 993.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa078…6150backed Yes | 10c | 985.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 6c | 861.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 813$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.7 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 4c | 785.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 3c | 721.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 30c | 716.45$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.57 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 7c | 600$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2148…639ebacked Yes | 3c | 589.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 4c | 581.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.26 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 6c | 556.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480f…422abacked Yes | 7c | 359$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 3c | 298.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 72 | 8.3%6 W · 66 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x990c…5ccfbacked Yes | 10c | 281$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1228…c4fabacked Yes | 7c | 279.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf11…08cdbacked Yes | 8c | 275$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 9c | 256.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 145 | 28.3%41 W · 104 L | +11.0wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c4…ab7fbacked Yes | 8c | 247.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6f…d0a1backed Yes | 8c | 212$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf48…1b58backed Yes | 7c | 193$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4975…7bc6backed Yes | 7c | 190$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13f…72bcbacked Yes | 7c | 186$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e32…9d5ebacked Yes | 8c | 172$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc315…5138backed Yes | 7c | 166$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97b0…fca5backed Yes | 10c | 137$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ea…c016backed Yes | 9c | 117$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked Yes | 18c | 102.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…da5dbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…21e8backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025?this page
- Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?Yes won
- Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Do Kwon in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025?Yes won
- Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in 2025?Yes won
- Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in 2025?No won
- Will Trump pardon Young Thug in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.