TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$186,245
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$183,181

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $186,245 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xebaa…abacbacked Yes0c19,960$20 inLost-$19.96280%0 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6b2…76a3backed Yes2c6,404$134 inLost-$134.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c5,648$51 inLost-$51.421,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes2c5,110$110 inLost-$110.413818.4%7 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc6d…e711backed Yes2c4,472$98 inLost-$98.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d7d…d15fbacked Yes2c3,918$82 inLost-$82.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes1c3,347$44 inLost-$43.712623.1%6 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-17.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked Yes2c3,149$78 inLost-$77.913935.9%14 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-24%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes2c2,808$57 inLost-$57.1233313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes3c2,525$72 inLost-$71.81368.3%3 W · 33 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-78.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes2c2,366$43 inLost-$42.59287.1%2 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes4c1,768$78 inLost-$77.7216544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes1c1,661$20 inLost-$20.123923.1%9 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42a6…c54abacked Yes1c1,280$14 inLost-$14.0820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78e4…62cabacked Yes1c1,200$16 inLost-$15.660%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89e4…ebedbacked Yes1c1,051$12 inLost-$11.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes3c1,050$31 inLost-$30.7196319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5427…2935backed Yes2c974$19 inLost-$19.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes2c888$14 inLost-$13.7635519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes5c807.27$44 inLost-$44.3655618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe871…595ebacked Yes3c677.58$20 inLost-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-36.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce98…cb03backed Yes2c667$14 inLost-$14.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes2c652.95$14 inLost-$13.536015%9 W · 51 L-0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid-61.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b3…adb5backed Yes3c621.64$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes8c471.04$36 inLost-$36.094126.8%11 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No16c452.27$71 inWon+$381.7216535.8%59 W · 106 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+86.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2727…a384backed Yes2c410.59$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes4c387.34$15 inLost-$15.2614624.7%36 W · 110 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes3c332$10 inLost-$10.293989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe361…bf48backed Yes4c321.52$12 inLost-$12825%2 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes11c286$32 inLost-$31.863315.2%5 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-64%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Yes6c265.19$15 inLost-$14.985837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes6c244.87$16 inLost-$15.514117.1%7 W · 34 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-50.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee7e…7cccbacked Yes5c200$10 inLost-$1060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes7c200$14 inLost-$1419328.5%55 W · 138 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes10c106.29$10 inLost-$10.2739522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.