Middle East · resolved market
Will the US strike Somalia next?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd90979fa7b289d91bc8f7f908791819ed407421e3df4b490b34c9ca061264aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $294,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $285,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $294,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe085…cd9abacked No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9917…aea4backed No | 10c | 12,242$1,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb4…4296backed No | 2c | 10,652$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2773…084abacked No | 1c | 7,024$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 6,259$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 1c | 6,174$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 0c | 4,595$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…8438backed No | 1c | 4,260$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63f7…6dbebacked No | 1c | 3,421$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5771…5a7fbacked No | 2c | 2,891$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 4c | 2,448$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.74 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x983b…09c4backed No | 2c | 2,334$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…fad7backed No | 1c | 2,308$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 2,141$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0dd…19eabacked No | 2c | 2,013$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 1,807$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf695…8fb9backed No | 2c | 1,442$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7750…324dbacked No | 1c | 1,423$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes | 79c | 1,400$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.2 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2787…1c83backed No | 3c | 1,371$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 9cpaid | +112.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x983b…56fbbacked No | 1c | 1,305$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 6cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 2c | 1,283$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 109 | 13.8%15 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 14c | 1,038$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.32 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 2c | 800$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5118…142bbacked No | 2c | 726.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 15c | 681.45$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.96 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5768…b5b6backed No | 1c | 670$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 2c | 626.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc88…b7eebacked No | 18c | 600$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a6…588ebacked Yes | 80c | 600$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 14c | 597.92$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.66 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e5…c594backed No | 2c | 562.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x470a…4f45backed No | 2c | 560.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d2…d753backed No | 18c | 557.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 12c | 506.23$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 11c | 467.4$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbc…d4adbacked Yes | 76c | 420$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6552…4b23backed No | 5c | 410.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf924…435bbacked No | 12c | 408.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4218…4814backed No | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde34…8b33backed No | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7771…009fbacked No | 25c | 395.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.61 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba0…811dbacked No | 16c | 316.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4999…cc96backed No | 13c | 303.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 11c | 260$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf95b…14ecbacked Yes | 80c | 251.25$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 14c | 244.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 10c | 235.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8212…5933backed No | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked No | 16c | 210$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 7c | 205.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 5c | 201$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 88 | 27.3%24 W · 64 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4822…0de4backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Yes | 33c | 200$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.9 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +24.9wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed No | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…888bbacked No | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked No | 8c | 176.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc37b…9b85backed No | 13c | 148$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 13c | 137.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +137.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed No | 12c | 114.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63b8…96e5backed No | 20c | 112.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.54per pick | 21cpaid | +315.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…8b21backed No | 14c | 102$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb61…9969backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked No | 18c | 80.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -14.9wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed Yes | 31c | 75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.68 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +12.5wins | +0.21per pick | 21cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd27b…3966backed Yes | 31c | 75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.68 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…e550backed No | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…5f17backed No | 18c | 71.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc5…de66backed Yes | 75c | 66.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7eb…093ebacked Yes | 72c | 57.24$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4742…afe1backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4a…ae97backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…87f9backed Yes | 31c | 37.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 22cpaid | +192.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 74c | 29.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…2a33backed Yes | 49c | 21.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +66%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x828d…c9a5backed No | 49c | 21.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x999c…6127backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x269a…190ebacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US strike Somalia next?this page
- Will the US not strike another country before 2027?No won
- Will the US strike Colombia next?No won
- Will the US strike Cuba next?No won
- Will the US strike Iran next?No won
- Will the US strike Iraq next?No won
- Will the US strike Mexico next?No won
- Will the US strike Nigeria next?No won
- Will the US strike Syria next?No won
- Will the US strike Venezuela next?No won
- Will the US strike Yemen next?No won
- Will the US strike another country first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.