Middle East · resolved market
Will the US strike Iran next?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a21333b027a3b8fe9ae5ea8113d288c43aed57bf10f283e5466a4f2eaa5158f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,703,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,727,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,703,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95bc…ba8fbacked Yes | 0c | 235,300$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…a57bbacked Yes | 0c | 118,903$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.17 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea11…1c39backed Yes | 0c | 102,642$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4479…8836backed Yes | 0c | 58,267$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…f084backed Yes | 0c | 44,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad2e…d9bdbacked Yes | 0c | 40,548$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf823…2476backed Yes | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983b…56fbbacked Yes | 0c | 38,851$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.47 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 6cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6baf…3819backed Yes | 0c | 29,448$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.79 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…f7b2backed Yes | 1c | 26,698$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe085…cd9abacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa089…2275backed Yes | 1c | 23,860$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa225…40bfbacked Yes | 0c | 21,816$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacfa…2334backed Yes | 1c | 21,568$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -38%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…89ecbacked Yes | 0c | 20,592$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b95…cd05backed Yes | 0c | 20,049$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba7…0a2ebacked Yes | 0c | 20,025$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900f…5219backed Yes | 1c | 17,260$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac12…7f97backed Yes | 0c | 17,014$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed Yes | 0c | 16,800$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12b7…1ef4backed Yes | 1c | 16,330$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…e53dbacked Yes | 0c | 15,844$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff20…0bb6backed Yes | 0c | 13,480$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…533bbacked Yes | 1c | 11,755$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60a6…7d01backed Yes | 0c | 11,710$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b8…aa6fbacked Yes | 0c | 11,500$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe17f…9d41backed Yes | 1c | 11,055$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc89…e4d0backed Yes | 0c | 10,312$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…d985backed Yes | 0c | 10,020$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc357…6646backed Yes | 0c | 10,003$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 9,622$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…02f7backed Yes | 0c | 9,523$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd955…6244backed Yes | 0c | 9,400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf392…46eebacked Yes | 0c | 7,900$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +400%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…43c2backed Yes | 0c | 7,712$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked Yes | 0c | 7,578$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0462…b9c3backed Yes | 1c | 7,282$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.28 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x105a…2eb1backed Yes | 0c | 6,681$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd1…a4a3backed Yes | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x359d…d7ebbacked Yes | 0c | 6,632$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd19…ddb7backed Yes | 0c | 6,550$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…bf78backed Yes | 0c | 6,283$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 9cpaid | +224.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…ad90backed Yes | 0c | 6,103$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4c…27f2backed Yes | 0c | 5,963$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d8…f5e2backed Yes | 0c | 5,843$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -74%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3a…8678backed Yes | 0c | 5,346$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d5…df70backed Yes | 0c | 5,333$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…2992backed Yes | 1c | 5,046$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 21cpaid | +227.3%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52cb…e27fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,016$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69d1…b1b9backed Yes | 6c | 4,343$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.23per pick | 30cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…a450backed Yes | 0c | 4,296$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0990…f36fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,137$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed16…50fbbacked Yes | 0c | 4,083$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a7…5ed5backed Yes | 0c | 4,029$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5abe…ac89backed Yes | 0c | 4,006$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,849$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.93 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc91f…c802backed Yes | 0c | 3,750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc09e…76f3backed Yes | 0c | 3,698$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe251…efa4backed Yes | 0c | 3,628$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…8c63backed Yes | 1c | 3,528$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +400%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…36efbacked Yes | 0c | 3,415$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3666…1751backed Yes | 0c | 3,243$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4d…aed9backed Yes | 4c | 3,130$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +240.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f2…736abacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe05a…7e92backed Yes | 1c | 2,981$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1e…3ea3backed Yes | 1c | 2,899$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 2,800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…cf8ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,757$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 6cpaid | +224.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9a…e275backed Yes | 0c | 2,750$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9537…47f0backed Yes | 1c | 2,600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…9e16backed Yes | 0c | 2,508$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…8fb8backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6e…6574backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd0…111cbacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e87…c31fbacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8470…d52dbacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0700…267bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.31per pick | 23cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 7c | 2,170$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.54 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…4320backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,955$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +136.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…9221backed Yes | 1c | 1,818$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d7…433ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,738$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57e9…fa64backed Yes | 1c | 1,561$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c4…3f14backed Yes | 1c | 1,555$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb78…adbbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,356$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,354$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x241d…ea6ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,333$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df0…e335backed Yes | 6c | 1,152$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6509…ab24backed Yes | 5c | 1,129$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +201.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,089$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 1c | 1,036$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…e448backed Yes | 14c | 1,015$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 54 | 7.4%4 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 2c | 948.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…b59ebacked Yes | 6c | 794.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Yes | 3c | 731.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e3…336dbacked Yes | 14c | 706.67$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e1…6944backed Yes | 7c | 544.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 6c | 526.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 6c | 516.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US strike Iran next?this page
- Will the US not strike another country before 2027?No won
- Will the US strike Colombia next?No won
- Will the US strike Cuba next?No won
- Will the US strike Iraq next?No won
- Will the US strike Mexico next?No won
- Will the US strike Nigeria next?No won
- Will the US strike Somalia next?Yes won
- Will the US strike Syria next?No won
- Will the US strike Venezuela next?No won
- Will the US strike Yemen next?No won
- Will the US strike another country first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.