TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Bill Clinton charged by January 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$150,354
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$114,769

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,354 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes2c15,000$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.113721.6%8 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.12per pick10cpaid+110.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c8,457$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.441,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe87…0b8fbacked Yes3c4,020$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes2c3,984$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832516%4 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid+15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02c0…2580backed Yes1c3,729$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes0c3,687$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1113216.7%22 W · 110 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid+19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c3,146$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.021343.7%5 W · 129 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c2,796$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.88736.8%5 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+36.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3082…db43backed Yes3c2,775$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff05…fad7backed Yes1c2,673$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5293.4%1 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-86.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes0c2,376$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.338015%12 W · 68 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-54.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b34…66adbacked Yes2c2,315$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes2c1,830$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.58231.7%26 W · 56 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x40fb…37d1backed Yes1c1,669$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes1c1,609$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.775710.5%6 W · 51 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+75.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes2c1,565$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27787.7%6 W · 72 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaebd…c462backed Yes1c1,418$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.63714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-76%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes1c1,355$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.961816.7%3 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick6cpaid+84.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x235e…2088backed Yes1c1,331$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes1c1,300$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5765.3%4 W · 72 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes2c1,210$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.643435.3%12 W · 22 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick27cpaid-24.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa793…7de7backed Yes3c1,143$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc007…466cbacked Yes2c1,104$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes1c1,090$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.63195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-87.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes3c1,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.513961.5%24 W · 15 L+6.5wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+68.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x17e5…f205backed Yes3c1,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf572…09f2backed Yes2c909.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206119.7%12 W · 49 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x613a…3495backed Yes3c897.04$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x103d…b4a9backed Yes3c800$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+165.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes2c800$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.23813.2%5 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick5cpaid+47.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b4a…fbc0backed Yes3c799.29$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.58633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick17cpaid+41.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x69bf…1737backed Yes3c798.95$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes2c789.13$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.61419.8%4 W · 37 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x370b…5f2cbacked Yes2c714.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b13…5957backed Yes3c696.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-60.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x674b…f1afbacked Yes3c696$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7f2…7027backed Yes3c693.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.262532%8 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c68…f2a8backed Yes3c675.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb71…516bbacked Yes2c638.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes2c591.32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.38333%1 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-67.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes2c586.28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.66827.3%6 W · 76 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed Yes3c502.06$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.72319.7%3 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab59…9c0ebacked Yes3c485.63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes4c475$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1822641.6%94 W · 132 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes3c400$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.41466.2%9 W · 137 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes3c400$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5210%0 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6a4…bf2dbacked Yes3c400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.39per pick18cpaid+1,617.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa8a0…c25abacked Yes4c357.1$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc45…6805backed Yes3c344.83$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+36%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f85…8693backed Yes3c310$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.042615.4%4 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-69.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9aa…bb40backed Yes4c300.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.041741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-39.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6416…f1c5backed Yes5c239.02$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9550%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.