Us Politics · resolved market
Bill Clinton charged by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64c1c1f4eb439373491bdbb54b6e07024f3d45d8546173b56b6043d41edd0e42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $150,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 2c | 15,000$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.11 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 8,457$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.44 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe87…0b8fbacked Yes | 3c | 4,020$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes | 2c | 3,984$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c0…2580backed Yes | 1c | 3,729$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,687$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 3,146$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,796$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…db43backed Yes | 3c | 2,775$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…fad7backed Yes | 1c | 2,673$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 0c | 2,376$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 80 | 15%12 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b34…66adbacked Yes | 2c | 2,315$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 2c | 1,830$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…37d1backed Yes | 1c | 1,669$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 1c | 1,609$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,565$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 78 | 7.7%6 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 1c | 1,418$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -76%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,355$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x235e…2088backed Yes | 1c | 1,331$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 1,300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,210$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…7de7backed Yes | 3c | 1,143$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc007…466cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,104$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,090$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…f205backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…09f2backed Yes | 2c | 909.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…3495backed Yes | 3c | 897.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x103d…b4a9backed Yes | 3c | 800$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +165.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 2c | 800$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…fbc0backed Yes | 3c | 799.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69bf…1737backed Yes | 3c | 798.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 789.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370b…5f2cbacked Yes | 2c | 714.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b13…5957backed Yes | 3c | 696.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x674b…f1afbacked Yes | 3c | 696$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed Yes | 3c | 693.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c68…f2a8backed Yes | 3c | 675.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb71…516bbacked Yes | 2c | 638.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 2c | 591.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 586.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 3c | 502.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab59…9c0ebacked Yes | 3c | 485.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 4c | 475$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a4…bf2dbacked Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.39per pick | 18cpaid | +1,617.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…c25abacked Yes | 4c | 357.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc45…6805backed Yes | 3c | 344.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +36%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed Yes | 3c | 310$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9aa…bb40backed Yes | 4c | 300.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6416…f1c5backed Yes | 5c | 239.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.