Venezuela · resolved market
Trump announces new drug boat strike by January 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd47e4a4d875bd7f677bc737e7a836e983d051142056b6e8755b5ab79bc40da2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca4b…1d01backed No | 4c | 6,885$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…fad7backed No | 0c | 6,872$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf87e…efd3backed No | 38c | 853.98$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 76c | 736.81$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.3 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -4.9wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 61c | 440.35$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.14 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f34…8d5cbacked No | 23c | 440$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 25c | 383.48$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 64c | 378.25$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.42 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 11c | 371.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 14c | 299.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 12c | 286.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c7…2ddfbacked No | 14c | 220$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x829d…dffdbacked Yes | 73c | 191.85$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +132.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 67c | 190.97$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.75 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 20c | 149.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…87adbacked No | 26c | 106.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8026…2f99backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed No | 16c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…527cbacked No | 35c | 78.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f02…3256backed Yes | 72c | 56.66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked Yes | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f05…89eebacked No | 28c | 48.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7be3…afa3backed Yes | 73c | 30.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…30f6backed Yes | 75c | 30.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6db8…c156backed Yes | 73c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +5.4wins | +0.34per pick | 54cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…0a3abacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 73c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c7…4421backed Yes | 73c | 14.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.