Ukraine · resolved market
Maduro exiled to Russia by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85ce84dfb023b3f45f41d9f1512729d2c6d646d425335e45150c493fd64d49c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $171,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $124,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $171,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 8,217$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.07 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ad…b0cfbacked Yes | 3c | 8,100$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 3c | 6,692$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.26 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 1c | 6,480$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 3,844$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 53 | 5.7%3 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,663$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,647$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,524$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.97 | 87 | 11.5%10 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba23…814dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,400$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7a…7a35backed Yes | 4c | 2,851$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 1c | 2,623$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 12cpaid | +95.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,316$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.16 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 7c | 2,108$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.76 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff5…50eabacked Yes | 2c | 2,010$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,862$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9d…efc0backed Yes | 2c | 1,682$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 1c | 1,638$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ddb…9ffabacked Yes | 4c | 1,562$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,455$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…417cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,420$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,323$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e1…1e82backed Yes | 2c | 1,304$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd4…b90abacked Yes | 4c | 1,255$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x660f…753ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,194$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 5c | 1,087$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…45d0backed Yes | 2c | 1,057$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…fad7backed Yes | 1c | 1,031$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b07…782bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,012$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 1,007$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee1…5a04backed Yes | 5c | 1,002$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…77adbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5b…26fabacked Yes | 4c | 870.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a8…416cbacked Yes | 2c | 844.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +317.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 1c | 840.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe020…85a2backed Yes | 2c | 801.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 2c | 779.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 748.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeecb…79f6backed Yes | 2c | 733.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dba…2ac5backed Yes | 1c | 727.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 2c | 718.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -95.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 3c | 701.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee0…1006backed Yes | 2c | 641.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x943c…5ff3backed Yes | 5c | 622.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 2c | 600$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…b395backed Yes | 5c | 598.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a27…6c56backed Yes | 18c | 585.52$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d71…0596backed Yes | 2c | 572.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 546.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 86 | 4.7%4 W · 82 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -87%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 4c | 467.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…b8ecbacked Yes | 5c | 459.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8120…54c9backed Yes | 3c | 434.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +719.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b8…c770backed Yes | 8c | 377.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a91…5267backed Yes | 15c | 309.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 6c | 283.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ba…b0d6backed Yes | 5c | 218.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 8c | 149.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x514b…0627backed Yes | 18c | 140.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 9c | 135$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 75c | 110$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +4.4wins | +0.28per pick | 60cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3bf…99d3backed Yes | 20c | 76.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 73c | 30.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b2…2bf2backed No | 72c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.