TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hurricanesof Hurricanes, Maple Leafs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$592,838
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$603,393

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $592,838 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 249 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed88…f3c4backed Maple Leafs46c361,243$166,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166,482.379340.9%38 W · 55 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x821d…0a01backed Hurricanes54c96,635$52,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,452.421652.3%113 W · 103 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Hurricanes50c75,855$37,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,886.7942552.2%222 W · 203 L+25.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9165…5b98backed Hurricanes55c63,399$34,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,529.7311955.5%66 W · 53 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Maple Leafs61c23,718$14,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,467.7211352.2%59 W · 54 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Maple Leafs57c23,284$13,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,362.4714538.6%56 W · 89 L-19.2wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-32.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Hurricanes54c20,000$10,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,20025449.2%125 W · 129 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Hurricanes54c19,599$10,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,013.241,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Hurricanes53c18,666$9,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,772.9988151.2%451 W · 430 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Hurricanes53c17,522$9,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,231.7116743.1%72 W · 95 L-12.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-14.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Hurricanes54c12,077$6,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,555.4216656.6%94 W · 72 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Hurricanes54c11,817$6,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,4721,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a89…2f26backed Hurricanes55c8,995$4,947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,047.7470547.7%336 W · 369 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3a9…3f04backed Maple Leafs47c7,456$3,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,504.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63a0…4a83backed Hurricanes53c7,450$3,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,501.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Hurricanes54c6,745$3,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,106.6537847.4%179 W · 199 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Hurricanes39c6,483$2,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,984.2926344.5%117 W · 146 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Hurricanes55c5,423$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,423.3429651.7%153 W · 143 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Hurricanes55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,25083652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Hurricanes30c5,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,499.941729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Hurricanes42c4,961$2,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,897.272,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Hurricanes54c4,519$2,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,078.5253050.6%268 W · 262 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Hurricanes53c4,386$2,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,061.631,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c1c…a0a4backed Hurricanes54c4,357$2,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,004.225646.4%26 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Hurricanes30c4,202$1,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,941.0392848.5%450 W · 478 L+17.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Hurricanes54c4,000$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,84030447.4%144 W · 160 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Maple Leafs45c3,464$1,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,548.2362249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Maple Leafs60c3,384$2,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,045.761,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8302…806ebacked Hurricanes36c2,845$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,810.38955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick34cpaid+69.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Maple Leafs45c2,775$1,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,248.7557453.8%309 W · 265 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Maple Leafs60c2,685$1,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,604.8840550.9%206 W · 199 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56f6…9f57backed Maple Leafs70c2,679$1,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,877.9433848.8%165 W · 173 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56c6…f706backed Hurricanes55c2,530$1,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.515954.1%86 W · 73 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Maple Leafs45c2,250$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012.563249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Hurricanes54c2,219$1,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,020.741,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31b0…8c4cbacked Hurricanes39c2,200$858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,342.054339.5%17 W · 26 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-19.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8180…208bbacked Maple Leafs46c2,174$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0008541.2%35 W · 50 L-7.1wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Maple Leafs44c2,113$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936.2841246.4%191 W · 221 L-24.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Hurricanes54c2,095$1,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963.5211946.2%55 W · 64 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Maple Leafs44c1,957$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.051,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Maple Leafs63c1,832$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,154.1719645.9%90 W · 106 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Maple Leafs61c1,823$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,105.063,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90f6…48f3backed Maple Leafs48c1,815$871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8713158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Maple Leafs70c1,550$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,085.1842847.2%202 W · 226 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Hurricanes55c1,440$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.491,14350.8%581 W · 562 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Maple Leafs56c1,422$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.011,35452.6%712 W · 642 L+46.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Maple Leafs60c1,305$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.191,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hurricanes53c1,158$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.682,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Maple Leafs47c1,133$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.6558841.8%246 W · 342 L-20.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Hurricanes48c1,032$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.8395049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Maple Leafs1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Hurricanes55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45075251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Maple Leafs72c1,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7202839.3%11 W · 17 L-4.5wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-30.7%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x15bc…5023backed Maple Leafs45c999.95$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.98650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Hurricanes31c973.91$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.3299638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Hurricanes54c925.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.9323047.4%109 W · 121 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Hurricanes55c917.15$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.1991653.9%494 W · 422 L+39.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Hurricanes53c897$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.5919451.5%100 W · 94 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0944…6771backed Maple Leafs45c750$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.510145.5%46 W · 55 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1aaf…f155backed Hurricanes56c710.29$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee7e…61bbbacked Hurricanes56c678.57$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.5741248.3%199 W · 213 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Maple Leafs41c673.46$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.785464.2%548 W · 306 L+64.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe997…1922backed Hurricanes56c654.59$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.026942%29 W · 40 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Maple Leafs67c649.54$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.0833837.9%128 W · 210 L-14.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa0a…d070backed Maple Leafs64c636.56$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.09450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Hurricanes54c632.06$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.791,63650.4%825 W · 811 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83b1…5278backed Maple Leafs45c610.58$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f96…9a34backed Maple Leafs45c609.8$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d64…01fabacked Maple Leafs44c604.78$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.119942.7%85 W · 114 L-0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Hurricanes54c600$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27668449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5e7…02dfbacked Hurricanes56c537.94$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb52d…95ffbacked Hurricanes57c527.1$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.15141.2%21 W · 30 L-7.0wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-26.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4f8d…a1e9backed Hurricanes38c526.32$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.326233.9%21 W · 41 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Hurricanes36c522.34$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.0984953.8%457 W · 392 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Hurricanes53c518.17$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.5469550.1%348 W · 347 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Maple Leafs45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22589249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Hurricanes55c500$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22566951%341 W · 328 L-14.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Hurricanes56c499$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.562,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Maple Leafs70c495$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.520137.8%76 W · 125 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Maple Leafs62c447.05$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.1793953.6%503 W · 436 L+29.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Maple Leafs44c437.99$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.7248452.3%253 W · 231 L+14.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Hurricanes54c429$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.3410554.3%57 W · 48 L+8.7wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x60ab…d681backed Hurricanes54c388.89$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.8912548%60 W · 65 L-15.6wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-21.2%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x1ada…43b0backed Maple Leafs70c350$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24517153.2%91 W · 80 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8097…8a5fbacked Hurricanes30c333.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.336431.3%20 W · 44 L-11.1wins-0.17per pick49cpaid-39%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Maple Leafs49c318.29$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.9641340%165 W · 248 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Maple Leafs57c313.89$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.9720947.4%99 W · 110 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x17e0…80aebacked Hurricanes29c300$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21332744%144 W · 183 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15ff…b983backed Maple Leafs44c300$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13230%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Maple Leafs60c292$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.261,05442.5%448 W · 606 L-25.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cfa…faa4backed Maple Leafs72c278.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.188846.6%41 W · 47 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…b1b1backed Hurricanes54c271.13$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.7226848.5%130 W · 138 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Hurricanes54c268.52$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.521,09351.8%566 W · 527 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ddd…f97ebacked Hurricanes38c263.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d7…d252backed Hurricanes54c262.96$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.961643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac80…4ff5backed Maple Leafs47c262.96$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.59837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75ba…ad79backed Maple Leafs47c244.68$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+50.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f74…85edbacked Hurricanes54c244.67$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.551060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51eb…2decbacked Maple Leafs44c238$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.725644.6%25 W · 31 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x466f…ee83backed Hurricanes63c235.52$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.371346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.