NHL · resolved market
Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17409d654d926d214c7992e8a077f54439ca399a8f141f4614e77d077d30aaf4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,437
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Over | 51c | 30,150$15,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,775 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 19,149$9,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,382.69 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Under | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 49c | 9,013$4,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,416.53 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 50c | 4,416$2,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,208 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 4,133$2,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,066.48 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 49c | 2,750$1,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,347.5 | 283 | 53%150 W · 133 L | +16.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 49c | 1,076$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.85 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 50c | 869$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.5 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…85f3backed Under | 51c | 792.16$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 51c | 551.04$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.01 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…1ed3backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 51c | 449$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.01 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc276…c2d9backed Under | 52c | 129$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | +10.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Under | 51c | 98.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Over | 51c | 49.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 50c | 40.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 308 | 48.4%149 W · 159 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…1e14backed Over | 51c | 38.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Under | 52c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 178 | 45.5%81 W · 97 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 601 | 41.9%252 W · 349 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d47…7861backed Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f3…ae84backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5this page
- Hurricanes vs. Maple LeafsHurricanes won
- Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.