TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel strikes Iran by January 9, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,096,036
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$977,156

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,096,036 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 304 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes4c32,347$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.7514129.8%42 W · 99 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x362c…39dbbacked Yes3c26,853$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800160%0 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes1c26,604$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.4819531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes5c19,122$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.8313823.2%32 W · 106 L+0.6wins0.00per pick23cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4d…a4ebbacked Yes5c18,775$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x88f0…d597backed Yes3c17,398$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.05100%0 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6adc…bebabacked Yes8c16,016$1,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,203.591428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick22cpaid-20%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x188c…c62bbacked Yes6c15,695$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90d1…f62abacked Yes4c15,238$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.39720%0 W · 72 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b59…6445backed Yes4c15,034$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.8950%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8b5…9102backed Yes4c14,950$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.4460%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x96cf…94aebacked Yes2c13,476$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.531127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69bf…1737backed Yes0c12,372$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5b2…17ebbacked Yes4c12,208$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed Yes9c12,000$1,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.165431.5%17 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abe…6497backed Yes5c11,359$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5506132.8%20 W · 41 L+11.3wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+296.6%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x29c5…2788backed Yes6c10,681$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620185.6%1 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick21cpaid-85.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x76d1…e9c1backed Yes5c10,191$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.3330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36da…8218backed Yes5c10,141$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.939532.6%31 W · 64 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+57.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d31…75d9backed Yes4c10,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdf6…6fc4backed Yes3c9,309$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.943215.6%5 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-30.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fce…a0febacked Yes2c8,578$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes4c8,543$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.047413.5%10 W · 64 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-54.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2938…f251backed Yes6c8,541$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500110%0 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes4c8,507$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.5543212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb481…28e0backed Yes8c7,816$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.6540%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2dfe…0a5ebacked Yes6c7,806$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2af…0b4cbacked Yes2c7,654$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8568…c278backed Yes7c7,617$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes1c6,843$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.743923.1%9 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-37%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes1c6,621$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.515414.8%8 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid+29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes1c6,561$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0151138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c5,751$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.351,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f51…e179backed Yes4c5,477$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2372910.3%3 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-49.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb842…9ee1backed Yes4c5,405$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes3c5,089$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.7812634.9%44 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ed7…6923backed Yes7c5,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35050%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6268…6031backed Yes6c4,704$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.548514.1%12 W · 73 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes2c4,516$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.1148923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x162f…9309backed Yes4c4,472$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1924027.5%11 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes3c4,319$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.466219.4%12 W · 50 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-51.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe571…0265backed Yes5c4,115$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x978e…8e24backed Yes4c4,105$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.42567.1%4 W · 52 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+99.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x219d…145bbacked Yes5c4,097$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.1930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d86…f14fbacked Yes5c3,969$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c7a…d125backed Yes4c3,905$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.73520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9b9…0fc6backed Yes3c3,796$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.5387.9%3 W · 35 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-67%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe617…51bcbacked Yes1c3,700$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3358.6%3 W · 32 L+0.1wins0.00per pick8cpaid-83.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc63e…9d66backed Yes3c3,640$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes4c3,608$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.442384.6%11 W · 227 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a90…2827backed Yes7c3,529$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25070%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9af0…ffd8backed Yes5c3,301$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-58.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5c6…c53abacked Yes5c3,234$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa9…93babacked Yes3c3,151$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.8570%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3bf…1c60backed Yes6c3,005$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.981315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fba…0ec1backed Yes6c2,982$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5df0…239cbacked Yes5c2,979$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.331216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-59.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2727…eef4backed Yes4c2,815$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.514415.9%7 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-56.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e8b…1754backed Yes1c2,743$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3480%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19d0…9ddbbacked Yes4c2,731$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1950%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8176…156dbacked Yes3c2,648$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.41428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-42.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39af…5289backed Yes2c2,645$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b21…a31fbacked Yes6c2,427$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.141127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0ba…2325backed Yes4c2,400$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.77520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x084b…98d0backed Yes4c2,338$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee9…062ebacked Yes4c2,330$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb030…f3a4backed Yes5c2,310$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.4940%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c2,306$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.697135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bb5…331bbacked Yes6c2,300$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46e9…0983backed Yes4c2,292$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.31911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-68.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e38…61b5backed Yes4c2,273$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6393…df24backed Yes5c2,251$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.8540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-24%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28f1…bbd8backed Yes4c2,231$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x124b…8a69backed Yes4c2,226$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002412.5%3 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes2c2,222$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.119736.1%35 W · 62 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x20a0…7563backed Yes5c2,206$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-31.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cc2…2995backed Yes2c2,181$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.881118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-56%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5621…5245backed Yes5c2,083$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeef4…520dbacked Yes2c2,080$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50370%0 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes5c2,013$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009930.3%30 W · 69 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b3c…8727backed Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004047.5%19 W · 21 L+7.1wins+0.18per pick30cpaid+46.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x558b…d650backed Yes4c1,952$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.8770%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes5c1,950$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.556336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9403…cd0ebacked Yes3c1,942$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55120%0 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3362…0303backed Yes5c1,874$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a9d…69fbbacked Yes6c1,828$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.066728.4%19 W · 48 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x680f…c5bfbacked Yes5c1,793$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62e2…eeb4backed Yes6c1,770$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04db…a2dcbacked Yes6c1,763$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002623.1%6 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-35.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e6d…6c4dbacked Yes4c1,760$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.71200%0 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c5…8732backed Yes3c1,734$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443938.5%15 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.13per pick26cpaid+69.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x64f8…32f9backed Yes6c1,721$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100440%0 W · 44 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83f2…063cbacked Yes6c1,668$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.82156.7%1 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.23per pick30cpaid-91.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdc2a…d0a4backed Yes5c1,612$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.36922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-41.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcaf0…08a1backed Yes5c1,611$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.322025%5 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-57.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc26…cc42backed Yes2c1,600$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2100%0 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc71d…3f27backed Yes6c1,585$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.121216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-58.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes6c1,576$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8115943.4%69 W · 90 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes1c1,565$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9150%0 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3b11…96d8backed Yes6c1,508$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.