World Politics · resolved market
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 85-99 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7acc9d4b61238509b78c191b27f3292a2079291c839e8640e6586099e9f54ca7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd91d…91fdbacked Yes | 27c | 1,505$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,456$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.37 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e36…508fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,427$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.3 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.35per pick | 45cpaid | -87%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x25d4…9b17backed Yes | 18c | 1,076$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a1…fc31backed Yes | 15c | 1,043$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.48 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 14c | 987.51$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.01 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f10…3c80backed Yes | 22c | 914.17$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…8efebacked Yes | 22c | 905.71$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 37cpaid | -63%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7604…78b5backed Yes | 12c | 800$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…8ab8backed No | 73c | 670$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.9 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…6943backed No | 73c | 645$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.15 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 20c | 599.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x427e…5ab4backed No | 73c | 518$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd4…c334backed Yes | 27c | 518$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…8191backed No | 73c | 439$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.53 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…c379backed Yes | 14c | 362.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb129…e850backed Yes | 10c | 360.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcecd…c518backed Yes | 22c | 357$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.39 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4703…27bebacked Yes | 10c | 265.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…db61backed Yes | 8c | 262.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4faa…fecfbacked Yes | 27c | 249$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.23 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…035abacked Yes | 21c | 246.51$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.84 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 16c | 214.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 15c | 199.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 146 | 32.2%47 W · 99 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 6c | 173.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 140 | 27.9%39 W · 101 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 10c | 162.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 12c | 158$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 15c | 151.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x277f…5f26backed Yes | 18c | 138.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 135.02$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 73c | 130.47$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97a6…2190backed Yes | 20c | 128.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 11c | 127.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 11c | 115.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 12c | 104.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee82…f011backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf7…7b1ebacked Yes | 15c | 99.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa1…2930backed Yes | 23c | 85.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed Yes | 16c | 65.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa32…a55bbacked Yes | 32c | 62.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b3…4dcbbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 70c | 50.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win 85-99 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?this page
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win 100-114 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win 115-129 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.