World Politics · resolved market
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 100-114 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ed2dc9dd07c9aa7d0c26657d440dda2aba2804d800b5f261aff965f5ac4a862
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd77…28eabacked Yes | 18c | 3,927$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda7f…2425backed Yes | 21c | 2,784$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…d40bbacked Yes | 17c | 1,970$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8920…af7abacked Yes | 21c | 1,904$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.3 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…293cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,380$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…c379backed Yes | 20c | 1,106$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b00…6a1cbacked Yes | 25c | 921.81$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…ab6abacked Yes | 17c | 713$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.21 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb212…0f8ebacked Yes | 17c | 695$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 658.96$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.4 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x285e…0b7dbacked Yes | 19c | 518.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 23c | 487.7$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.98 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 78c | 411$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.35 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb129…e850backed Yes | 23c | 339.12$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d62…27e0backed No | 77c | 299.99$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…69f3backed Yes | 19c | 244.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 238.51$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 17c | 228.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf789…a812backed Yes | 23c | 220.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x927e…e071backed Yes | 23c | 220.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 79c | 219.63$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b82…034dbacked Yes | 21c | 213.78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 20c | 200.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 15c | 182$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…941ebacked No | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…6f2cbacked Yes | 19c | 129$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.31per pick | 36cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 17c | 127.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6fc1backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…3869backed Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.9wins | -0.43per pick | 54cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9169…e2dabacked Yes | 17c | 89.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 80c | 87$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 140 | 27.9%39 W · 101 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…50b4backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed No | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97a6…2190backed Yes | 33c | 75.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…6f5fbacked Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497d…944cbacked Yes | 18c | 60.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1b…6d80backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c77…1b74backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 77c | 47.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb683…00d7backed Yes | 23c | 47.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x277f…5f26backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 75c | 28.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 72c | 26.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 76c | 16.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x603f…4557backed No | 80c | 15.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 13.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win 100-114 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?this page
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win 115-129 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win 85-99 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.