World Politics · resolved market
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0383facf325ea0d4bb4b6e14c542c0d14d6b3c0437de10695417b63cefd8814c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $220,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $213,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $220,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9968…6e51backed Yes | 7c | 8,664$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92e8…50aebacked Yes | 7c | 3,331$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf145…8fdabacked Yes | 4c | 2,735$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b5…0352backed Yes | 5c | 2,735$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50a…6717backed Yes | 10c | 2,629$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda7f…2425backed Yes | 4c | 2,424$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.82 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133f…ebbebacked Yes | 3c | 2,381$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…66a7backed Yes | 4c | 2,293$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.56 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5850…dc65backed Yes | 5c | 2,217$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01bb…f429backed Yes | 7c | 2,209$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,147$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0f…43dabacked Yes | 6c | 2,133$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaefb…219ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,861$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e3…a569backed Yes | 3c | 1,819$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ab…bf17backed Yes | 4c | 1,789$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +987%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf27…b28dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,697$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x494d…92d8backed Yes | 4c | 1,656$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e64…4120backed Yes | 3c | 1,654$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b90…f084backed Yes | 7c | 1,648$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2068…9f2ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,570$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8316…e206backed Yes | 3c | 1,484$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4e…dfb3backed Yes | 3c | 1,408$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…416bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,402$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…22e5backed Yes | 6c | 1,383$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8488…be04backed Yes | 6c | 1,332$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc854…138cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,329$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d54…56ecbacked Yes | 3c | 1,312$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe986…5d49backed Yes | 3c | 1,271$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…fe97backed Yes | 4c | 1,254$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 5cpaid | +1,349.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…0693backed Yes | 3c | 1,233$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…3decbacked Yes | 3c | 1,223$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72dc…cf85backed Yes | 4c | 1,218$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ac…5fadbacked Yes | 3c | 1,189$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…43bcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,186$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e27…64e7backed Yes | 3c | 1,175$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x492a…cd78backed Yes | 3c | 1,115$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…344cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,104$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,076$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa114…bd0abacked Yes | 3c | 1,072$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x367f…fbdcbacked Yes | 6c | 1,063$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55cd…9ffabacked Yes | 3c | 1,026$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedeb…d412backed Yes | 3c | 1,021$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…8664backed Yes | 8c | 1,014$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x927e…e071backed Yes | 5c | 993.27$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28e5…267dbacked Yes | 3c | 985$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…fd94backed Yes | 7c | 959$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cd…f81abacked Yes | 7c | 958$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd3…5d5fbacked Yes | 3c | 919$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafb7…fa47backed Yes | 4c | 908$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcaa…5c0dbacked Yes | 3c | 905.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2677…7feebacked Yes | 6c | 883$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2595…47eebacked Yes | 6c | 835$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6f…2c98backed Yes | 7c | 823$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0f…006bbacked Yes | 7c | 822$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b07…6a8abacked Yes | 8c | 795.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x639d…76ddbacked Yes | 3c | 788$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…f1cebacked Yes | 4c | 739$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4303…7facbacked Yes | 7c | 722$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c51…d160backed Yes | 3c | 707$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab2…94cbbacked Yes | 3c | 706$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 8c | 673.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.84 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…ed98backed Yes | 3c | 669$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31b…4648backed Yes | 3c | 668$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a1…265cbacked Yes | 5c | 663.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5180…23dbbacked Yes | 6c | 593$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2da…fb05backed Yes | 7c | 570$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6af9…407dbacked Yes | 3c | 537$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0b…7e3bbacked Yes | 7c | 534$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…ffa2backed Yes | 4c | 513.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f86…aa1ebacked Yes | 3c | 494$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd026…16b3backed Yes | 6c | 452.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 4c | 348.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…995ebacked Yes | 10c | 333.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 317.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…fd89backed Yes | 6c | 233.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd85b…d467backed Yes | 5c | 229.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 218.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 135 | 7.4%10 W · 125 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 6c | 180.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 7c | 149.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e9…f158backed Yes | 12c | 104.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?this page
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win 100-114 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win 115-129 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win 85-99 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.