World Politics · resolved market
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01510d4f36a4055795345072479f71f432533d2c2bf2f3265eaa142d34306914
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25d4…9b17backed Yes | 22c | 2,904$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f10…3c80backed Yes | 9c | 2,486$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a1…fc31backed Yes | 17c | 1,616$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.71 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 25c | 930.13$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.89 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 31c | 799.99$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 21c | 655.86$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.74 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 25c | 371.36$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.99 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc9…ac05backed Yes | 19c | 330.87$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.09 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 23c | 299.46$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.97 | 141 | 26.2%37 W · 104 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c4…fdbbbacked Yes | 25c | 280$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 26c | 279.38$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.05 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…50ecbacked No | 75c | 278$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcecd…c518backed Yes | 17c | 223.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce2…5f90backed Yes | 23c | 215.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf7…7b1ebacked Yes | 24c | 207.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 23c | 199.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 146 | 32.2%47 W · 99 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 29c | 195.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.07 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…fd89backed Yes | 25c | 177.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d6…b696backed Yes | 24c | 169.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 167.94$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 24c | 165.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…4230backed Yes | 29c | 158$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes | 25c | 146$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x666a…c5bebacked Yes | 35c | 142.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x277f…5f26backed Yes | 26c | 136.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…afb5backed Yes | 25c | 132$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 67c | 116.3$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…200fbacked Yes | 19c | 103$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee82…f011backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…9357backed Yes | 19c | 99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 15c | 86.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 29c | 84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe356…63bcbacked No | 75c | 82.58$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b3…4dcbbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 78c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0f0bbacked No | 76c | 68.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 77cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…aaa1backed Yes | 23c | 60.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 76c | 57.23$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked No | 76c | 57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…7bd5backed Yes | 21c | 51.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…ca08backed No | 76c | 50.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…cc03backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x905d…2c17backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -4.3wins | -0.36per pick | 52cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…035abacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05bf…5fa8backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f10…9406backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked No | 75c | 49.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 72c | 47.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9682…bab7backed Yes | 26c | 42.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 66c | 38.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 76c | 35.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | +13.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec5…4deabacked Yes | 36c | 35.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4169…98e9backed No | 78c | 33.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked No | 76c | 23.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe3…6580backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…0e52backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde12…fb14backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdc…a29abacked No | 77c | 16.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?this page
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win 100-114 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win 115-129 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win 85-99 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will Fidesz-KDNP win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.